ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی محصول پنبه استان خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

2 استادیار، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

3 استادیار، سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و سنجش از دور، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

چکیده

برآورد نیاز آبی گیاه تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم برای برنامه ریزی در جهت اصول ابیاری و مدیریت منابع آب در بخش کشاورزی، حائز اهمیت است. پنبه به عنوان یکی از محصولات صنعتی در کشور، از اهمیت بالایی برخور دار می‌باشد. در این تحقیق براساس داده‌های ایستگاههای هواشناسی در دوره پایه و برونداد مدل‌های گردش کلی جو از دوره آینده تا 2060 میلادی، تغییرات و انحرافات Eto و نیاز آبی محصول پنبه در خراسان رضوی بررسی شد. ارزیابی استان براساس داده مشاهداتی نشان داد که عمده نزولات جوی استان در دوره سرد سال بخصوص ماه مارس یا اسفند تا اواخر فروردین ماه و اواسط اردیبهشت رخ می‌دهد. بررسی داده شبیه سازی شده نشان داد که در دوره آینده تا 2061 میلادی؛ مقدار دمای هوا در سطح منطقه افزایش خواهد یافت. بارش ماهانه در دوره (2040-2020) نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش یافته، اما در دهه‌های (2061-2041) نسبت به دهه‌های قبل افزایش یافته و نزدیک به نرمال می‌رسد. در واقع در دهه نزدیک 2060 میلادی مقدار بارش نسبت به دهه‌های نزدیک تر افزایش جزئی خواهد داشت؛ این شرایط در سایه افزایش دمای هوا، افزایش جزئی بارش نمی‌تواند ثبات داشته باشد. بررسی‌ها نشان داد که مقدار Eto یا تبخیر – تعر ق مرجع در دوره آینده نسبت به دوره مبنا و گذشته با توجه به افزایش دمای هوا افزایش خواهد یافت. براساس افزایش تبخیر – تعرق مرجع، نیاز آبی مراحل رشد پنبه شامل مرحله اولیه، میانی و پایانی نیز افزایش خواهد داشت. از نظر طول دوره رشد؛ بالاترین مقدار نیاز آبی در دوره میانی رشد پنبه رخ خواهد داد. از نظر توزیع مکانی و پراکندگی‌ها؛ مناطق نیمه شمالی و مرکز استان به واسطه شرایط ارتفاعی و کوهستانی (قوچان، درگز، چناران، نیشابور و تربت حیدریه) از بالاترین مقدار تبخیر – تعرق مرجع و نیاز آبی برخوردار می باشند. لزوم توجه جدی بر مدیریت بهینه

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of climate change effects on water requirement of cotton crop Khorasan Razavi province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Salari 1
  • Abdolreza Kashki 2
  • Mokhtar Karami 2
  • Rahman Zandy 3
1 Master student of Applied Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University
2 Assistant professor of Climatolog- Hakim Sabzevari University
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University
چکیده [English]

Estimation of plant water requirement under climate change conditions is important for planning in the direction of irrigation principles and water resources management in the agricultural sector. Cotton is one of the most important industrial products in the country. In this study, based on the data of meteorological stations in the base period and the output of total atmospheric circulation models from the next period to 2060, ETo changes and deviations and the water requirement of cotton crop in Khorasan Razavi were investigated. Evaluation of the province based on observational data showed that most of the province's rainfall occurs in the cold period of the year, especially in March or March to late April and mid-May. Examination of the simulated data showed that in the next period up to 2061; the amount of air temperature in the region will increase. Monthly precipitation in the period (2020-2040) decreased compared to the base period, but in the decades (2041-2061) increased compared to previous decades and reached close to normal. In fact, in the near decade 2060, the amount of rainfall will increase slightly compared to the next decades; These conditions can not be stabilized due to the increase in air temperature, a slight increase in precipitation. Studies have shown that the amount of Eto or reference evapotranspiration in the future period will increase compared to the base period and the past due to the increase in air temperature. Based on the increase in reference evapotranspiration, the water requirement of cotton growth stages, including the initial, intermediate and final stages, will also increase. In terms of length of growth period; The highest amount of water requirement will occur in the middle period of cotton growth. In terms of spatial distribution and dispersion; The northern half of the province and the center of the province have the highest amount of reference evapotranspiration and water requirement due to altitude and mountainous conditions (Quchan, Dargaz, Chenaran, Neishabour and Torbat Heydariyeh). The need for serious attention to the optimal management of water resources and planting resistant crops with higher adaptability is important.





Estimation of plant water requirement under climate change conditions is important for planning in the direction of irrigation principles and water resources management in the agricultural sector. Cotton is one of the most important industrial products in the country. In this study, based on the data of meteorological stations in the base period and the output of total atmospheric circulation models from the next period to 2060, ETo changes and deviations and the water requirement of cotton crop in Khorasan Razavi were investigated. Evaluation of the province based on observational data showed that most of the province's rainfall occurs in the cold period of the year, especially in March or March to late April and mid-May. Examination of the simulated data showed that in the next period up to 2061; the amount of air temperature in the region will increase. Monthly precipitation in the period (2020-2040) decreased compared to the base period, but in the decades (2041-2061) increased compared to previous decades and reached close to normal. In fact, in the near decade 2060, the amount of rainfall will increase slightly compared to the next decades; These conditions can not be stabilized due to the increase in air temperature, a slight increase in precipitation. Studies have shown that the amount of Eto or reference evapotranspiration in the future period will increase compared to the base period and the past due to the increase in air temperature. Based on the increase in reference evapotranspiration, the water requirement of cotton growth stages, including the initial, intermediate and final stages, will also increase. In terms of length of growth period; The highest amount of water requirement will occur in the middle period of cotton growth. In terms of spatial distribution and dispersion; The northern half of the province and the center of the province have the highest amount of reference evapotranspiration and water requirement due to altitude and mountainous conditions (Quchan, Dargaz, Chenaran, Neishabour and Torbat Heydariyeh). The need for serious attention to the optimal management of water resources and planting resistant crops with higher adaptability is important.

Estimation of plant water requirement under climate change conditions is important for planning in the direction of irrigation principles and water resources management in the agricultural sector. Cotton is one of the most important industrial products in the country. In this study, based on the data of meteorological stations in the base period and the output of total atmospheric circulation models from the next period to 2060, ETo changes and deviations and the water requirement of cotton crop in Khorasan Razavi were investigated. Evaluation of the province based on observational data showed that most of the province's rainfall occurs in the cold period of the year, especially in March or March to late April and mid-May. Examination of the simulated data showed that in the next period up to 2061; the amount of air temperature in the region will increase. Monthly precipitation in the period (2020-2040) decreased compared to the base period, but in the decades (2041-2061) increased compared to previous decades and reached close to normal. In fact, in the near decade 2060, the amount of rainfall will increase slightly compared to the next decades; These conditions can not be stabilized due to the increase in air temperature, a slight increase in precipitation. Studies have shown that the amount of Eto or reference evapotranspiration in the future period will increase compared to the base period and the past due to the increase in air temperature. Based on the increase in

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cotton
  • Climate change
  • Evapotranspiration
  • Water requirement
  • Khorasan Razavi

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پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی
دوره 1402، شماره 53
سال چهاردهم| شماره 53| بهار 1402
شهریور 1402
صفحه 163-182

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