عنوان مقاله [English]
Currently, agriculture is one of the most important economic sectors of any country. One of the basic ways to develop and promote agricultural activities in any country is the optimal use of land, according to ecological conditions. Such a development requires to know the various factors that are involved in it. Therefore, researchers pay special attention to land use and based on ecological-agricultural models, identify, evaluate, and assess the ecological resources of land with appropriate methods for specific purposes. Weather is one of the basic environmental factors that control all aspects of life. Among the climate elements, temperature and precipitation play a decisive role. Temperature, as an indicator of the intensity of heat, is one of the basic elements of knowing the weather, and due to receiving the sun's energy from the earth, it undergoes many changes, which in turn causes extensive changes in other meteorological elements. Investigating the impact of weather factors on the performance of agricultural products is extremely important and the production efficiency of agricultural products is largely related to climatic conditions Climatic features in the long term have led to determining the cultivation pattern and justifying the distribution of different plant species. The present study was conducted to evaluate the trend of climatic parameters on the initiation of barberry tree germination in Iran
Materials and methods:
The research area, the areas prone to barberry tree cultivation in Iran amount to 1.356858 square kilometers, equivalent to 22.1%, and the eastern regions of the country include the provinces of South Khorasan (Qain, Birjand), Fars (Shiraz, and Abadeh), Hamadan, Markazi, Isfahan, Chaharmahal, Bakhtiari and Kerman are the best places to grow this crop. Also, some of the northwestern provinces of Iran, along with Zahedan and the southern provinces of Razavi and Western Khorasan provinces (Saqez, Sanandaj, Kermanshah, and Khorram Abad) are relatively suitable for barberry cultivation. In this research, using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method and the Slope Sense test, the trend of changes in the elements of sunshine hours, average humidity, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, the number of freezing days, and total rainfall in 19 stations of the country in 30 years. 1990-2020) was done on the growth of barberry and its output was drawn in the form of tables, graphs, and trend maps in the Arc GIS environment. The results showed that six main phenological stages occur in the BBCH scale in barberry trees. According to the location, the south of Razavi Khorasan and the center towards the northwest of the country are the best areas for barberry cultivation. The growth period according to climatic conditions and topography lasts from the beginning of April to the end of November.
To analyze the trend of climatic parameters in the barberry cultivation areas in Iran, the statistics of Mann-Kendall tests and age slope estimator were used, and the significance of these statistics was examined at the confidence level of 99% and 95%. Estimating the slope of the trend line with the age estimator showed that the slope of the trend line of the total hours of sunshine in the germination phenology stage has the most changes in the station of Yazd (0.33 hours) and Tabriz (0.1 hours). The trend analysis of the average relative humidity parameter showed that a significant decreasing trend can be seen at the 95% confidence level in the stations of Shahrekord, Khorramabad, Abadeh, Zanjan, Fasa, Birjand, and Torbat Heydarieh. In the stations of Qain, Arak, Zahedan, Yazd, Kerman, and Kermanshah, there is a significant decreasing trend in the confidence level of 99%. The number of changes in the average temperature during the germination period of the barberry tree was obtained based on the SEN's slope. Have had. The analysis of the trend of minimum temperature showed that all the stations except the cities of Shiraz, Saqqez, and Sanandaj have an increasing trend at a significant level of 5%, the rest of the studied stations have an increasing trend at a significant level of 1%. Estimating the slope of the trend line with the age estimator of the maximum temperature parameter showed that the slope of the maximum temperature trend line in the germination phenology stage, in Zahedan station (0.37°C) and Saqez (0.06°C), respectively, has the highest and The least changes. The analysis of the time series trend of the total rainfall showed that except for the stations of Tabriz, Khorram Abad, and Shahr Kurd, there is a significant decreasing trend at the level of 5%, and no special trend was observed in the rest of the stations. Examining the number of frost days by estimating the slope of the trend line with the age estimator showed that the slope of the trend line of the average number of frost days in the germination phenology stage has the most changes in Tabriz station (0.03 days per year). The results and achievements of this are important for raising awareness about the role and importance of climatic conditions in choosing species compatible with the climate of each region, as well as providing a model for correct management and risk of horticultural products.