پهنه‌بندی مناطق کشور بر اساس شاخص‌های اثرات تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد تهران مرکز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران

2 دانش آموخته دکتری رشته جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران

چکیده

امروزه بزرگ‌ترین تهدید زیست‌محیطی کره زمین، گرمایش جهانی و تغییر اقلیم است. پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم منجر به کمبود آب و مواد غذایی، بیماری، بیکاری و مهاجرت، فقر، بحران در خصوص منابع و بی‌ثباتی می‌گردد. تحقیق حاضر ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی-تحلیلی است. گردآوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات اسنادی و پیمایشی و با ابزار پرسش‌نامه صورت گرفته است. جامعه آماری به‌صورت هدفمند و شامل صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین در حوزه تغییر اقلیم شاغل در سازمان‌های هواشناسی، محیط‌زیست و پدافند غیرعامل است. پرسش‌نامه بر اساس شاخص‌های اثرات تغییر اقلیم و توسعه پایدار طراحی و پس از توزیع، تعداد 60 پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری‌گردید. سپس به‌وسیله آزمون مقایسه‌ای فریدمن اولویت‌بندی پارامترهای تأثیرگذار تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار پرداخته که به ترتیب عبارت‌اند از 1- آسیب‌پذیری معیشت، فقر و دولت ضعیف 2- کشاورزی پایدار و مقابله با بیابان‌زایی و خشک‌سالی 3-سلامت، بهداشت عمومی 4- حفظ تعادل اکوسیستم طبیعی 5- عدالت و امنیت اجتماعی و شهروندی بیشترین تأثیر را در توسعه پایدار کشور خواهد داشت. سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزار (GIS) پهنه‌بندی کشور بر اساس مؤلفه‌های ‌اثرات تغییر اقلیم در مناطق کشور ترسیم شد. بر اساس یافته‌های تحقیق، با توجه به شاخص‌های اولویت‌بندی شده اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار کشور در استان‌های سیستان و بلوچستان، بوشهر، قم، خراسان جنوبی و البرز بیشترین ‌اثرپذیری را خواهند داشت. بدین منظور دولت با یک برنامه‌ریزی مدون می‌تواند در کاهش چالش‌های ناشی از اثرات تغییر اقلیم در این مناطق تأثیرگذار باشد. در پایان‌بر لزوم اجرای روش‌های مؤثر ازجمله آبخیزداری و استفاده از انرژی‌های پاک جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای برای سازگاری با اثرات تغییر اقلیم تأکید شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Mapping of Iran regions based on indicators of Climate Change impacts

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohamad akhbari 1
  • mohamad basiri sadr 2
1 Associate Professor of Department of Geography, Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Graduated from the Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch
چکیده [English]

Introduction

The greatest environmental threat today is global warming and Climate Change. Climate Change deined as dramatic and long-term change in the distribution of Atmospheric patterns in the long-term periods. What distinguishes the current Climate Change is that humans have played an important role in the global warming process. The issue is that human activities increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This will increase the amount of intense absorbed radiation, and the amount that is emitted again to the Earth causes the Earth to warm up. The weather model forecasts in the summary report showed that during the 21st century, global temperatures increased from 0/3 to 1/7 degrees Celsius to 2/6 to 4/8 degrees Celsius (4/7 to 8/6 degrees Fahrenheit), and its amount depends on the amount of greenhouse gases and the effects of Climate feedback. (NASA, 2017)

The main effect of Climate Change is the increase of global average temperature. The average surface temperature could increase from (approximately 1/67 to 5/56 degrees Celsius) by the end of the 21st. This causes a variety of secondary effects, namely, changes in patterns of precipitation, rising sea levels, agriculture pattern changes, extreme increase of weather events, the expansion of the range of tropical diseases, and the opening of new marine trade routes. Potential effects include sea level rise from 110 to 770 mm between 1990 to 2100, agriculture consequences, possible slowing of the ocean heat circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increases of intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever (IPPC,2013). The country Iran, which is a spatial political unit in Southwest Asia, is not excluded from the Climate Change impacts. Undoubtedly, Iran will face the consequences of the Global Climate Change today or in the very near future. Environmental impacts of Climate Change in Iran, considering that 90% of Iran's land are dry and semi-arid lands, leads to destruction of the agricultural industry. For this purpose, the following questions have been asked: Which indices of sustainable development in Iran are subjected to and how is the status of these indices validated by the country? What are the indicators of the effects of Climate Change on the sustainable development of the country and what is the status of these indicators in the provinces of the country?

Materials and Methods

Historically, Iran has always been exposed to the consequences of Climate Change, given its Geographical location. Iran's location in the Earth's desert belt and the availability of a quarter of its water resources (precipitation and surface water) have revealed the need to pay attention to the various dimensions of Climate Change in Iran. The purpose of this study is to zoning the country's regions based on Sustainable Development indicators, the effects of Climate Change, and to provide a model in different regions of the country. The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, application and method. Data collection and documentary and survey information have been done with questionnaire tools. Data collection and documentary and survey information have been done with questionnaire tools. The statistical population of the research is purposeful and includes experts and specialists in the field of Climate Change working in meteorological, environmental and passive defense organizations. To ensure the validity of the questionnaire, the opinions of 3 professors of Climatology and Political Geography of Tehran University and Research Sciences were used and after making corrections and adjustments, 48 questions were compiled for the final questionnaire. To measure the reliability of the questionnaires, Cronbach's alpha test scored 0/8 out of 16 questionnaires as a pretest. The questionnaire was designed based on the indicators of the effects of climate change and after distribution, 60 questionnaires were collected. The data were then entered into the SPSS software and Friedman's comparative test was used to prioritize the Sustainable Development indicators of the effects of Climate Change.

Discussion and Results

Then, Friedman's comparison test in SPSS software prioritizes the effective parameters of Climate Change on Sustainable Development, which arerespectively, they are: 1- Vulnerability to livelihood, poverty and weak government 2- Sustainable Agriculture and combating desertification and drought. 3- Health, Public Health 4- Maintaining the balance of the natural ecosystem.5- Justice and social security and citizenship will have the greatest impact on the sustainable development of the country. Then, using GIS software, the country's zoning was drawn based on the effects of Climate Change in the country's regions.

Country zoning based on poverty and social anomalies (misery index), Sustainable Agriculture (Strategic Products), drought and agricultural destruction, public health indicator, ecosystem balance, Social Justice (Distributive Justice)

Conclusion

The results of this study show that the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Qom and Alborz are in line with the highest percentage of weakness and fragility against the effects of Climate Change in the country, which will have the greatest challenge with drought and agricultural degradation These challenges will increase the process of importing agricultural products to Iran, and Iran will become an importer of these products, and on the other hand, will cause migration, unemployment, poverty and increase social anomalies in Kermanshah, Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The government is also authorized to use educational services and the ability to reconsider using the revision and change in re-status using the revision in the library of Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, South Khorasan, Alborz and Qom. To this end, the government can use a well-written plan to reduce the challenges posed by the effects of climate change in these areas. Finally, the need to implement effective methods such as watershed management and clean energy use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to adapt to Climate Change impacts is emphasized.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • global warming
  • Greenhouse Gases
  • geographic information system (GIS)
  • Sustainable Development
  1. Alijani, B. Q. Rahimi, Y (2005). Comparison of the Estimation of Tabriz Annual Temperature Changes with the Thermal Abnormality of the Earth Using Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network, Journal of Geography and Development, Vol. 3 no 6, winter 2005: 21-38
  2. Amirnejad, Hamid. Asad Pour Kurdi, Maryam (2017). Effects of Climate Change on Iranian Wheat Production. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research. Ancestor 9 No. 3 fall 2017:163-182
  3. Bahri, masomee. Zahedi, Ehsan (2016) Investigation of Climate Change Effects on Hydrological Regime of Surface Flow of Azkoush Watershed. Journal of Applied Geosciences Research. Sixteenth Year No. 42 fall 2019:109-132
  4. Buzan, Barry. Weaver, Elie and Pop Dvollide (2013) A New Framework for Security Analysis, translated by Alireza Tayeb. Tehran: Publication of Strategic Studies Research Center p. 106198
  5. Census of Iran (2016) Population and Housing Census of 2016. Published by Census of Iran.
  6. Central Bank of Iran (2018). Announcement of inflation rate in the provinces of the country. Year 2018.
  7. Giddens, Antony (2012) Climate Change Policies. Translation of Fred Zahra. Yahya Pour, Mohammad Sadiq Karimi, Sajjad. Tehran: Geographic Organization of the Armed Forces Publication p. 226
  8. Kaviani Rad, Murad. Karimipour, Yadollah Fahmi, Hedayat and Karami, Sadiq (2017) Explaining the Consequences of Climate Change Change in the Central Iranian Watershed Area. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences. Year 17, No. 45, fall 2017: 73-92
  9. Khooshmanesh, Behnoosh. Pourhashemi, Seyyed Abbas Soltanieh, Mohammad Hermeida Bavand, Davod (2015) Study of the Consequences of Climate Change from a Human Rights Perspective. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Journal 15, Volume 17, Issue 4, winter 1994: 223-234
  10. Mohammadkhani, M.; and Jamali, S. (2015). Assessing Iran's vulnerability in facing climate change, dam and hydroelectric power plant, 2(4):54-65
  11. Mojtahedzadeh, Pirouz, (2002) Iranian Ideas and Geopolitical Transformations, Tehran: Neshrani Page 127
  12. Naseri, Mohsen. Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh (2016) Evaluation of the policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding climate change. Quarterly Journal of Socio-Cultural Strategy. Fifth Year No. 21. wenter2016, pp. 21-48
  13. National Center for Drought and Crisis Management (2019) Analysis of precipitation and air temperature in the country from October to June 2019 and survey of the latest drought and humidity in the country. Meteorological Organization of the country. Ministry of Roads and City Planning
  14. Prizadi, Tahir. Mirzazadeh, Hojat (2018) Regional development in Iran with the approach of distributive justice. Geographical Sciences Applied Research Journal. Year 18, No. 50, Fall 2018, pp. 179-198.
  15. Rahimi, Dariush. Rahimi Dashli-Brun, Younes (2016) Investigating the effect of climate change and land use on floods in the north of Iran (Maderso Basin). Geography and Environmental Planning Quarterly, 27th consecutive year, 61, number 1, Spring 2016.
  16. Rahnami, Mohammad Taghi (2016) Iran, Its Natural and Environmental Capabilities. Mahkameh Tehran Publications.
  17. Saberi Louyeh F, Alijani B, Khaledi S. (2019). Caspian Sea south coast future climate change estimations through regional climate model. Journal of Spatial Analysis of Environmental Hazards. Jsaeh. 2019; 6 (1) spring 2019: 111-138
  18. The National Reference Office of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Iran (2017) Revealing, evaluating the effects and prospects of climate change in Iran during the 21st century. Meteorological Organization. Climatology Research Institute. Mashhad.
  19. Zarei, Shirin. Hizbavi, Zainab. Mostafazadeh, Rauf. Ismali Auri, Abazar (2020) Comparison of vulnerability of Samian watershed sub-basins based on changes in climatic components. Natural Geography Research Quarterly, Volume 52, Number 2, Pages: 217-236
  20.  
  21. References (in English)
  22. J (2008) Potential Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability. Illinois State Water Survey. Institute of Natural Resource Sustainability
  23. Chloe Taylor (2019). "Global tension is hampering our ability to fight climate change, Davos survey warns". CNBC. Retrieved January 18, 2019
  24. Ding, Y. Hayes, M. J. Widhalm, M. (2011). "Measuring economic impacts of drought: A review and discussion". Disaster Prevention and Management. 20 (4): 434–446.
  25. Epstein, Paul R. Ferber, Dan (2011). Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it. University of California Press
  26. Gleick, Peter H. 2014: Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Wea. Climate Soc.331-340
  27. Henseler, J, & Fassott, G. (2009). Testing moderating effects in PLS path models: Anillustration of available procedures. In: V. Esposito Vinzi, W.W. Chin, J. Henseler & H Wang (eds), Handbook of partial least squares: Concepts, methods, and applications. Berlin: Springer (in print).
  28. Higgins, Eoin (2019). "Climate Crisis Brings Historic Delay to Planting Season, Pressuring Farmers and Food Prices". Ecowatch. Retrieved 30 May 2019
  29. Homme, Demian. Murphy, Alexander B (2013) Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change. GeoJournal (2013) 78:507–524 DOI 10.1007/s10708-012-9448-8pp520
  30. Hulme, Mike (2016). "Concept of Climate Change, in: The International Encyclopedia of Geography". The International Encyclopedia of Geography. Wiley-Blackwell/Association of American Geographers (AAG). Retrieved 16 May
  31. IDMC (2014) (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) Norwegian Refugee Council. "Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters: Global estimates for 2009 and 2010". Internal-displacement.org. Archived from the original on 1 March 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.
  32. IPCC Climate Change (2001): The Scientific Basis. Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Houghton, J.T. et al. (Eds).
  33. IPCC Climate Change (2007). "Summary for Policymakers: C. Current knowledge about future impacts". Climate Change
  34. IPCC, Climate Change (2013): The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers (AR5 WG1)" - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 17. Archived from the original on 22 December 2018. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century
  35. Myers, Norman. (2002) "Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon. Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences 357.1420: 609. Print
  36. NASA (2011) "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs Climate Change14357. Retrieved 23 July.
  37. NASA (2017): "Scientific consensus. Climate Change" Vital Signs of the Planet: Earth's climate is warming Archived from the original on 28 June 2018. Retrieved 7 August 2017.
  38. Paskal Cleo, House Chatham (June2007), How Climate Change is pushing the Bounndries of Security and Foreign Policy, Energy EEDP CC BP 07/01 Environment and Development Programme,
  39. Reiter, Paul (2001). "Climate Change and Mosquito-Borne Disease". Environmental Health Perspectives. 109 (1): 141–161. DOI:10.1289/ehp.01109s1141. PMC 1240549. PMID 11250812. Archived from the original on 2011-08-24.
  40. Schneider, S.H. et al. (2007). "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change M.L. Parry et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and New York, U.S.A. pp. 779–810.

 

  1. Tubiello, Francesco N. Rosenzweig, Cynthia (2008). "Developing climate change impact metrics for agriculture". The Integrated Assessment Journal. 8 (1): 165–184
  2. UN-Water (2013). UN Water Statistics" Archived 2013-05-17 at the Wayback Machine
  3. Wheeler D. (2011). Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation
    CGD Working Paper 240. Washington, D.C. Center for Global Development.
  4. WOT (World Health Organization) (2018). "Climate change and health". World Health Organization. World Health Organization. Retrieved 27 February 2018
  5. Zhang, Y. Guan, D. Jin, C. Wang, A. Wu, J. and Yuan, F. (2011). Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in northeast China. J. Hydro. 410(3-4), 239-247.