پهنه‌بندی مناطق کشور بر اساس شاخص‌های اثرات تغییر اقلیم

Introduction

The greatest environmental threat today is global warming and Climate Change. Climate Change deined as dramatic and long-term change in the distribution of Atmospheric patterns in the long-term periods. What distinguishes the current Climate Change is that humans have played an important role in the global warming process. The issue is that human activities increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This will increase the amount of intense absorbed radiation, and the amount that is emitted again to the Earth causes the Earth to warm up. The weather model forecasts in the summary report showed that during the 21st century, global temperatures increased from 0/3 to 1/7 degrees Celsius to 2/6 to 4/8 degrees Celsius (4/7 to 8/6 degrees Fahrenheit), and its amount depends on the amount of greenhouse gases and the effects of Climate feedback. (NASA, 2017)

The main effect of Climate Change is the increase of global average temperature. The average surface temperature could increase from (approximately 1/67 to 5/56 degrees Celsius) by the end of the 21st. This causes a variety of secondary effects, namely, changes in patterns of precipitation, rising sea levels, agriculture pattern changes, extreme increase of weather events, the expansion of the range of tropical diseases, and the opening of new marine trade routes. Potential effects include sea level rise from 110 to 770 mm between 1990 to 2100, agriculture consequences, possible slowing of the ocean heat circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increases of intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever (IPPC,2013). The country Iran, which is a spatial political unit in Southwest Asia, is not excluded from the Climate Change impacts. Undoubtedly, Iran will face the consequences of the Global Climate Change today or in the very near future. Environmental impacts of Climate Change in Iran, considering that 90% of Iran's land are dry and semi-arid lands, leads to destruction of the agricultural industry. For this purpose, the following questions have been asked: Which indices of sustainable development in Iran are subjected to and how is the status of these indices validated by the country? What are the indicators of the effects of Climate Change on the sustainable development of the country and what is the status of these indicators in the provinces of the country?

Materials and Methods

Historically, Iran has always been exposed to the consequences of Climate Change, given its Geographical location. Iran's location in the Earth's desert belt and the availability of a quarter of its water resources (precipitation and surface water) have revealed the need to pay attention to the various dimensions of Climate Change in Iran. The purpose of this study is to zoning the country's regions based on Sustainable Development indicators, the effects of Climate Change, and to provide a model in different regions of the country. The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, application and method. Data collection and documentary and survey information have been done with questionnaire tools. Data collection and documentary and survey information have been done with questionnaire tools. The statistical population of the research is purposeful and includes experts and specialists in the field of Climate Change working in meteorological, environmental and passive defense organizations. To ensure the validity of the questionnaire, the opinions of 3 professors of Climatology and Political Geography of Tehran University and Research Sciences were used and after making corrections and adjustments, 48 questions were compiled for the final questionnaire. To measure the reliability of the questionnaires, Cronbach's alpha test scored 0/8 out of 16 questionnaires as a pretest. The questionnaire was designed based on the indicators of the effects of climate change and after distribution, 60 questionnaires were collected. The data were then entered into the SPSS software and Friedman's comparative test was used to prioritize the Sustainable Development indicators of the effects of Climate Change.

Discussion and Results

Then, Friedman's comparison test in SPSS software prioritizes the effective parameters of Climate Change on Sustainable Development, which arerespectively, they are: 1- Vulnerability to livelihood, poverty and weak government 2- Sustainable Agriculture and combating desertification and drought. 3- Health, Public Health 4- Maintaining the balance of the natural ecosystem.5- Justice and social security and citizenship will have the greatest impact on the sustainable development of the country. Then, using GIS software, the country's zoning was drawn based on the effects of Climate Change in the country's regions.

Country zoning based on poverty and social anomalies (misery index), Sustainable Agriculture (Strategic Products), drought and agricultural destruction, public health indicator, ecosystem balance, Social Justice (Distributive Justice)

Conclusion

The results of this study show that the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, Qom and Alborz are in line with the highest percentage of weakness and fragility against the effects of Climate Change in the country, which will have the greatest challenge with drought and agricultural degradation These challenges will increase the process of importing agricultural products to Iran, and Iran will become an importer of these products, and on the other hand, will cause migration, unemployment, poverty and increase social anomalies in Kermanshah, Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The government is also authorized to use educational services and the ability to reconsider using the revision and change in re-status using the revision in the library of Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, South Khorasan, Alborz and Qom. To this end, the government can use a well-written plan to reduce the challenges posed by the effects of climate change in these areas. Finally, the need to implement effective methods such as watershed management and clean energy use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to adapt to Climate Change impacts is emphasized.