بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم در انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای تحت سناریوها و مدل تغییر اقلیم (حوضه تجن استان مازندران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دوره دکترای رشته آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی نور ، نور ، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد نور،ایران

3 استادیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد نور ، نور ، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه علوم ومهندسی آبخیز دانشگاه پیام نور واحد مرکزساری ،ساری ، ایران.

5 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب- سازه های آبی دانشگاه پیام نور واحد مرکزساری ،ساری ، ایران.

چکیده

Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely used to alleviate water scarcity at the cost of compromising water access in water-exporting regions. How efficient are inter-regional water in changing weather conditions and water supply and demand. In this research, we are trying to achieve the correct amount with the help of climate change scenarios. Hydrometric and climatology data of 21 years (1998-2019) were used to investigate the effects of climate change on the water resources of the basin. These changes (temperature and rainfall) were investigated using the data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall, and using the LARS-WG model, the climate change of the Tejn basin was simulated using the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050-2030. became The evaluation results of the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model in the base period have the highest correlation and agreement compared to the synoptic and rain gauge station statistics based on temperature and precipitation components in Naz and Darab stations, respectively. In the period from 2030 to 2050, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, an increase of 2-10 and 2-20 percent of precipitation has occurred in some months in Pol Safid and Tajen stations, respectively. But in most of the months, we have also faced constant or sometimes 2 to 10 percent decrease in rainfall, which has caused a decrease in runoff due to the implementation of water resources development projects in the region. The results of the runoff analysis in the climate model under scenario 4.5 have been that the amount of runoff has decreased in most months, and this percentage difference is very small, but in scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, .

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of climate change on water transfer between basins under climate change scenarios and models (Tajn Basin, Mazandaran Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • rahmanali haghshenasgatabi 1
  • Sadroddin Motevalli 2
  • Gholamreza Qobadi janbaz 3
  • Hadi razzaghian 4
  • Babak momene 5
1 Ph.D. student in Hydrology and Meteorology, Noor Islamic Azad University, Nour, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor branch
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Noor Branch, Nour, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Watershed Science and Engineering Department, Payam Nour University, Sari Center Branch, Sari, Iran.
5 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering - Water Structures, Payam Nour University, Sari Center, Sari, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely used to alleviate water scarcity at the cost of compromising water access in water-exporting regions. How efficient are inter-regional water in changing weather conditions and water supply and demand. In this research, we are trying to achieve the correct amount with the help of climate change scenarios. Hydrometric and climatology data of 21 years (1998-2019) were used to investigate the effects of climate change on the water resources of the basin. These changes (temperature and rainfall) were investigated using the data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall, and using the LARS-WG model, the climate change of the Tejn basin was simulated using the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050-2030. became The evaluation results of the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model in the base period have the highest correlation and agreement compared to the synoptic and rain gauge station statistics based on temperature and precipitation components in Naz and Darab stations, respectively. In the period from 2030 to 2050, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, an increase of 2-10 and 2-20 percent of precipitation has occurred in some months in Pol Safid and Tajen stations, respectively. But in most of the months, we have also faced constant or sometimes 2 to 10 percent decrease in rainfall, which has caused a decrease in runoff due to the implementation of water resources development projects in the region. The results of the runoff analysis in the climate model under scenario 4.5 have been that the amount of runoff has decreased in most months, and this percentage difference is very small, but in scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, the amount of difference is significant. The temperature also decreased under the two scenarios of 2.6 and 4.5 (optimistic and average), but in the 8.5 scenario, which is a pessimistic scenario, in addition to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, this increase has caused chaos in the atmosphere and increased temperature. The results of this research show that the increase in precipitation in the Tajen watershed will lead to an increase in the amount of surface runoff at the level of the studied basin in the forecast period of 2030-2050. Finally, the findings of this research showed that LARS has a high capability in investigating climate changes.



Key words: water stress, climate change scenario, atmospheric general circulation model, watershed, LARS model.



Investigating the effect of climate change on water transfer between basins under climate change scenarios and models

(Tajn Basin, Mazandaran Province)



Abstract

Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely used to alleviate water scarcity at the cost of compromising water access in water-exporting regions. How efficient are inter-regional water in changing weather conditions and water supply and demand. In this research, we are trying to achieve the correct amount with the help of climate change scenarios. Hydrometric and climatology data of 21 years (1998-2019) were used to investigate the effects of climate change on the water resources of the basin. These changes (temperature and rainfall) were investigated using the data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall, and using the LARS-WG model, the climate change of the Tejn basin was simulated using the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model and RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios in 2050-2030. became The evaluation results of the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model in the base period have the highest correlation and agreement compared to the synoptic and rain gauge station statistics based on temperature and precipitation components in Naz and Darab stations, respectively. In the period from 2030 to 2050, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, an increase of 2-10 and 2-20 percent of precipitation has occurred in some months in Pol Safid and Tajen stations, respectively. But in most of the months, we have also faced constant or sometimes 2 to 10 percent decrease in rainfall, which has caused a decrease in runoff due to the implementation of water resources development projects in the region. The results of the runoff analysis in the climate model under scenario 4.5 have been that the amount of runoff has decreased in most months, and this percentage difference is very small, but in scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, the amount of difference is significant. The temperature also decreased under the two scenarios of 2.6 and 4.5 (optimistic and average), but in the 8.5 scenario, which is a pessimistic scenario, in addition to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases, this increase has caused chaos in the atmosphere and increased temperature. The results of this research show that the increase in precipitation in the Tajen watershed will lead to an increase in the amount of surface runoff at the level of the studied basin in the forecast period of 2030-2050. Finally, the findings of this research showed that LARS has a high capability in investigating climate changes.



Key words: water stress, climate change scenario, atmospheric general circulation model, watershed, LARS model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • water stress
  • climate change scenario
  • atmospheric general circulation model
  • watershed
  • LARS model

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پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی
دوره 1402، شماره 53
سال چهاردهم| شماره 53| بهار 1402
شهریور 1402
صفحه 35-50

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