بررسی آماری روند تغییرات دمای تر در ایران مرکزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 رئیس اداره آموزش، برنامه ریزی و تولید محتوا سازمان هواشناسی کشور

3 دانشیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی وعلوم جو، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این پژوهش داده‌های دمای تر ایستگاه‌های ایران مرکزی در ماه‌های مختلف و فصل‌های گرم، سرد و گذر از دیدگاه آماری بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که وجود روند صعودی در فصل سرد در یازده ایستگاه تایید و در دو ایستگاه رد شد. بیشترین شیب خط روند در این فصل در ایستگاه‌های قم و داردان و سپس اراک و نطنز با مقادیر به ترتیب 53/0+ و 52/0+ درجه بر ده سال بدست آمد. کمترین مقدار در این فصل متعلق به ایستگاه اصفهان با مقدار 17/0+ درجه بر ده سال بود. در فصل گذر وجود روند صعودی فقط در یک ایستگاه تایید و در 11 ایستگاه رد شد. بیشترین شیب خط روند در این فصل در ایستگاه قم به مقدار40/0+ درجه بر ده سال بدست آمد. در فصل گرم در ایستگاه‌های یزد، اصفهان، گرمسار، بافق، رباط پشت‌بادام، کاشان، خور و بیابانک، نائین، شهرضا، اردستان، گلپایگان و کبوترآباد شیب خط نزولی است و در بقیه ایستگاه‌ها شیب خط صعودی می‌‌باشد. وجود روند صعودی در ایستگاه‌های اراک و سمنان تایید نشد و در ایستگاه‌های شاهرود، قم، نطنز و داران مورد تایید قرار گرفت که بیشترین شیب خط روند به ایستگاه‌های داران و قم با مقادیر 30/0+ و 27/0+ درجه بر ده سال تعلق دارد.

چنین به نظر می‌رسد که وجود روند صعودی تایید شده بر داده‌های میانگین دمای تر در فصل‌های گرم و گذر که در اثر تغییر اقلیم و بهم خوردن شرایط محیطی حاکم بر ایستگاه‌ها ایجاد شده است، سبب شود تا در ده‌های پیش رو در مناطق مسکونی قم، داران، شاهرود و نطنز، شرایط آسایش زندگی از حالت تعادل خارج شود و ساکنان آن در استفاده از تهویه متبوع سرمایشی متداول مانند کولر آبی به استفاده از تهویه سرمایشی مانند کلر گازی که هزینه زیادی از بابت مصرف انرزی بر خانوار تحمیل می‌کند، روی آورند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Wet-Bulb Temperature Variation view point of statistical

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Hosein Meshkatee 1
  • Sara Soleymani 2
  • Mohammad Moradi 3
1 Associate Prof.,Azad University
2 Head of education, planning and content production department
3 Associate Prof. of Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research (ASMERC), Tehran
چکیده [English]

Statistical study of the trend of wet temperature changes in Central Iran

َAbstract

In this study, the temperature data of central Iran stations in different months and hot, cold and passing seasons were investigated from a statistical point of view. The results showed that the presence of an upward trend in the cold season in eleven stations was confirmed and rejected in two stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season is estimated in Qom, Daran, Arak and Natanz stations with values of +0.53 and +0.52 degrees per 10 years. The lowest amount in this season was allocated to Isfahan station with a value of +0.17 degrees per ten years.

In the passing season, the existence of an upward trend in one station has been confirmed and rejected in 11 stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season was estimated in Qom station with values of +0.40 degrees per 10 years. In the warm season, except in Yazd, Isfahan, Garmsar, Bafgh, Robat posht badam, Kashan, Khor va byabank, Naeen, Shahreza, Ardestan, Golpaygan and Kabotar abad stations, which is the slope of the descending line, in the rest of the stations, the uptrend has been confirmed. An upward trend in Shahrod, Ghom, Natanz and Daran stations has been confirmed and rejected in Arak and Semnan stations that the highest slope of trend line belongs to Dararn and Gom stations with values of +0.30 and +0.27 degrees per ten years.

It seems that the existence of confirmed upward trend in the warm and transit seasons caused by climate change and the disturbance of environmental conditions governing the stations, causes in the decades ahead in the residential areas of Qom, Daran, Shahroud and Natanz, the conditions of life comfort to be out of balance and its residents in the use of conventional cooling ventilation such as water coolers to use Cooling ventilation such as gas chlorine, which imposes a high cost on households for energy consumption, should be turned on.

Key words: Wet-Bulb Temperature, Trend, Central of Iran, Man-Kendal



Abstract

In this study, the temperature data of central Iran stations in different months and hot, cold and passing seasons were investigated from a statistical point of view. The results showed that the presence of an upward trend in the cold season in eleven stations was confirmed and rejected in two stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season is estimated in Qom, Daran, Arak and Natanz stations with values of +0.53 and +0.52 degrees per 10 years. The lowest amount in this season was allocated to Isfahan station with a value of +0.17 degrees per ten years.

In the passing season, the existence of an upward trend in one station has been confirmed and rejected in 11 stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season was estimated in Qom station with values of +0.40 degrees per 10 years. In the warm season, except in Yazd, Isfahan, Garmsar, Bafgh, Robat posht badam, Kashan, Khor va byabank, Naeen, Shahreza, Ardestan, Golpaygan and Kabotar abad stations, which is the slope of the descending line, in the rest of the stations, the uptrend has been confirmed. An upward trend in Shahrod, Ghom, Natanz and Daran stations has been confirmed and rejected in Arak and Semnan stations that the highest slope of trend line belongs to Dararn and Gom stations with values of +0.30 and +0.27 degrees per ten years.

It seems that the existence of confirmed upward trend in the warm and transit seasons caused by climate change and the disturbance of environmental conditions governing the stations, causes in the decades ahead in the residential areas of Qom, Daran, Shahroud and Natanz, the conditions of life comfort to be out of balance and its residents in the use of conventional cooling ventilation such as water coolers to use Cooling ventilation such as gas chlorine, which imposes a high cost on households for energy consumption, should be turned on.

Key words: Wet-Bulb Temperature, Trend, Central of Iran, Man-Kendal

Abstract

In this study, the temperature data of central Iran stations in different months and hot, cold and passing seasons were investigated from a statistical point of view. The results showed that the presence of an upward trend in the cold season in eleven stations was confirmed and rejected in two stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season is estimated in Qom, Daran, Arak and Natanz stations with values of +0.53 and +0.52 degrees per 10 years. The lowest amount in this season was allocated to Isfahan station with a value of +0.17 degrees per ten years.

In the passing season, the existence of an upward trend in one station has been confirmed and rejected in 11 stations. The highest slope of trend line in this season was estimated in Qom station with values of +0.40 degrees per 10 years. In the warm season, except in Yazd, Isfahan, Garmsar, Bafgh, Robat posht badam, Kashan, Khor va byabank, Naeen, Shahreza, Ardestan, Golpaygan and Kabotar abad stations, which is the slope of the descending line, in the rest of the stations, the uptrend has been confirmed. An upward trend in Shahrod, Ghom, Natanz and Daran stations has been confirmed and rejected in Arak and Semnan stations that the highest slope of trend line belongs to Dararn and Gom stations with values of +0.30 and +0.27 degrees per ten years.

It seems that the existence of confirmed upward trend in the warm and transit seasons caused by climate change and the disturbance of environmental conditions governing the stations, causes in the decades ahead in the residential areas of Qom, Daran, Shahroud and Natanz, the conditions of life comfort to be out of balance and its residents in the use of conventional cooling ventilation such as water coolers to use Cooling ventilation such as gas chlorine, which imposes a high cost on households for energy consumption, should be turned on.

Key words: Wet-Bulb Temperature, Trend, Central of Iran, Man-Kendal

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wet-Bulb Temperature
  • Trend
  • Central of Iran
  • Man-Kendal