تحلیل الگوی رفتاری سناریو های آب و هوایی و تاثیر آن بر تغییرات سطح آب دریای خزر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هوا شناسی ، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، واحد علوم و تحقیقات ، تهران ، ایران

2 استاد آب و هواشناشی دانشگاه خوارزمی و مدیر قطب علمی تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد آب و هوا شناسی ، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی ، دانشکده علوم زمین ، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی ، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رویداد های فرین ناشی از تغییرات آب و هوایی در پیش بینی تراز سطح دریا اهمیت زیادی دارند. در منطقه مورد مطالعه، در آینده فراوانی و شدت رویدادهای فرین دما و بارش افزایش خواهند یافت. نمایه های فرین، نشان دهنده تغییر مقادیر فرین دما و بارش نسبت به دوره پایه 2010-1981 بوده است و این امر، نشان دهنده مجموع بارش و یا دمایی بیش از صدک 95 دوره پایه است. ضریب تغیرات بارش و دما برای کل حوضه آبگیر خزر مثبت است و در ناحیه جنوبی الگوی نامنظمی بر آستانه های بارش حاکم است. افزایش سطح دریا  (SLR ) یک نگرانی عمده برای نواحی ساحلی است. پیش بینی دقیق سطح دریای خزر برای آینده غیر ممکن است، اما مدل های کامپیوتری می توانند پیش بینی احتمالی تغییرات آینده را ارائه دهند. این مشکل با استفاده از یک سیستم مدل یکپارچه به نام SIMCLIM با دقت مکانی 1/0 درجه در1/0 درجه در خوشبینانه ترین حالت یعنی RCP4.5 و بدبینانه ترین حالت یعنی RCP8.5 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. پیش بینی های انجام شده نشان می دهد که افزایش سطح دریای خزر به آرامی تا سال 2100 افزایش می یابد. اگر افزایش حداکثر پیش بینی شده رخ دهد، سواحل خزر آسیب پذیرترین جابجایی ساحلی را تجربه خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the behavioral pattern of climate scenarios and its impact on the Caspian sea level changes

نویسندگان [English]

  • FArdin saberi Louyeh 1
  • bohlol Alijabni 2
  • Shahriar Khaledi 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University
2 climatology Professor at Kharazmi University and Director of the Space
3 Climate Professor, Department of Natural Geography , Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Conclusion
The present research, through applying precipitation and temperature extreme events, illustrates that percent of forecasted precipitation and temperature changes in comparison with the average base period of 1981-2010, in 2030, 2060, 2100 will increase procedurally. Spatial variability, and annual coefficient of variation in various regions are different. north, western north, eastern north and east will include the least temperature fluctuations, and the highest percent of precipitation with the highest coefficient of variation which conveys chronological period precipitation distribution with disordered accumulation and more local difference in this region in comparison with other regions. Then, Ghafghaz mountainous region has the highest percent of precipitation rise with suitable scattering in a year. The southern region of Caspian sea will experience the most rise of temperature and lowest percent of precipitation rise. High coefficient of variation in this area illustrates abnormal and disordered pattern on the threshold of precipitation.
Sea level rise with three estimation regression, low average, high, on the basis of sea level ascending pattern equation For both scenarios, fluctuations in sea level based on subsidence Caspian pit seabed was calculated. In general, average annual sea level is increasing which is about 1.22 cm each year for scenario RCP8.5, and 0.93 cm yearly for scenario RCP4.5. Through this article, it can be found that changes in coastal region is unavoidable. However, inhabitants in this region have no system or not yet developed which can help them to adopt themselves with climate change issue. This study illustrated the significant effect of coastal climate which through climate change how society and economical activities are influenced.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sea level rise
  • Caspian basin
  • Emission scenarios
  • Extreme event
  • Coefficient of variation

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