پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی

پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی

تغییر اقلیم و توسعه اجتماعی : دو جهان در دو مسیر گذار عادلانه و سازگاری با ‏تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 پزوهشگر آزاد
2 بدون وابستگی سازمانی - پژوهشگر آزاد
10.22034/jcr.2026.585879.1743
چکیده
این مقاله با رویکردی مروری و تحلیل مفهومی–انتقادی، به بررسی پیوند میان تغییرات اقلیمی، عدالت اقلیمی و مسیرهای توسعه ‏اجتماعی در شمال و جنوب جهانی می‌پردازد. هدف اصلی پژوهش، واکاوی این مسئله است که چگونه سازگاری اقلیمی و ‏سیاست‌های گذار عادلانه می‌توانند به‌جای تقویت توسعه اجتماعی پایدار، در صورت فقدان حکمرانی عادلانه و ظرفیت نهادی کافی، ‏به بازتولید نابرابری‌های ساختاری منجر شوند‎.‎روش تحقیق مبتنی بر مرور نظام‌مند ادبیات بین‌رشته‌ای در حوزه‌های تغییر اقلیم، توسعه ‏اجتماعی، اقتصاد سیاسی اقلیم و حکمرانی است. داده‌ها از مقالات علمی داوری‌شده، گزارش‌های نهادهای بین‌المللی و اسناد سیاستی ‏گردآوری و از طریق تحلیل تماتیک انتقادی و کدگذاری مفهومی تحلیل شده‌اند‎.‎‏ یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که شکاف سازگاری اقلیمی، ‏نابرابری در ظرفیت‌های نهادی و اقتصادی و نیز خصوصی‌سازی ریسک اقلیمی، از مهم‌ترین موانع توسعه اجتماعی پایدار هستند. ‏همچنین سیاست‌های جهانی اقلیم، از جمله توافق‌های اخیر، اغلب فاقد ضمانت اجرایی کافی بوده و به جای کاهش نابرابری، در ‏برخی موارد آن را بازتولید می‌کنند. مقاله نشان می‌دهد که در غیاب اصلاحات نهادی و مشارکت اجتماعی واقعی، سازگاری اقلیمی به ‏‏«سازگاری معلق» تبدیل می‌شود که تنها بقا را مدیریت می‌کند. در نهایت، مقاله مفهوم «همبست تغییرات اجتماعی–اقلیمی» را به‌عنوان ‏چارچوبی تحلیلی پیشنهاد می‌کند که بر درهم‌تنیدگی عدالت اجتماعی، حکمرانی و تاب‌آوری چندبعدی تأکید دارد.‏
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Climate Change and Social Development: Two Worlds on Two Paths of Just Transition and Climate Change Adaptation

نویسندگان English

Mahta Bazrafkan 1
Mahta Bazrafkan 2
1 independent reasrecher
2 No organizational affiliation - Independent researcher
چکیده English

Extended Abstract ‎

This paper adopts a critical review and conceptual–analytical approach to examine the ‎interlinkages between climate change, climate justice, and social development pathways across ‎the Global North and Global South. It critically investigates how climate adaptation policies and ‎the emerging discourse of “just transition” may, under conditions of unequal governance ‎capacity and structural vulnerability, reproduce rather than reduce global and intra-societal ‎inequalities.‎

The central argument of the study is that climate adaptation and social development are deeply ‎entangled processes; however, in the absence of equitable institutional arrangements, effective ‎governance, and redistributive mechanisms, adaptation tends to become a compensatory ‎mechanism for survival rather than a transformative pathway toward social development. This ‎condition is conceptualized in the paper as “suspended social adaptation,” where vulnerable ‎societies are required to continuously adjust to escalating climate risks without adequate access ‎to resources, institutional support, or decision-making power.‎

Methodology

The study employs a qualitative, conceptual review methodology based on systematic ‎engagement with interdisciplinary literature in climate change studies, political ecology, ‎development studies, climate governance, and social justice theory. Sources include peer-‎reviewed academic articles, reports from international organizations such as the IPCC, UNDP, ‎FAO, UNEP, and the World Bank, as well as key policy documents from recent climate ‎negotiations, particularly COP30.‎

Data analysis is conducted through conceptual coding and critical thematic analysis. Core ‎concepts such as climate justice, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, social development, ‎governance, and resilience are extracted, compared, and reinterpreted within an integrative ‎analytical framework. The aim is not hypothesis testing, but rather theoretical synthesis and ‎conceptual development.‎

Findings

The findings demonstrate that climate change operates not only as an environmental stressor but ‎also as a structural amplifier of existing social, economic, and political inequalities. The study ‎identifies several interrelated mechanisms through which climate change constrains social ‎development:‎

First, the global “adaptation gap” reflects a persistent asymmetry between escalating climate ‎risks and the uneven distribution of adaptive capacity. This gap disproportionately affects low-‎income and marginalized populations, particularly in the Global South, where institutional ‎fragility and limited fiscal space constrain adaptive responses.‎

Second, climate finance and adaptation policies, while expanding in scope, remain ‎insufficiently binding and weakly institutionalized. As a result, financial flows intended for ‎adaptation often fail to translate into structural improvements in social resilience and may ‎instead reinforce technocratic and project-based interventions that neglect underlying social ‎inequalities.‎

Third, climate-induced mobility and migration are increasingly recognized as key social ‎consequences of environmental change. However, such movements are often driven by the ‎erosion of livelihoods, food insecurity, and environmental degradation rather than voluntary ‎choice, leading to new forms of urban marginalization and social precarity.‎

Fourth, the paper highlights the gendered dimensions of climate adaptation, particularly the ‎privatization of climate risk within households. In many contexts, women disproportionately ‎absorb the emotional, social, and reproductive labor associated with climate shocks, a process ‎that the paper conceptualizes as the “emotionalization of adaptation governance.”‎

Fifth, governance deficits—including corruption, weak institutional capacity, lack of ‎transparency, and short-term policy horizons—significantly undermine the effectiveness of ‎adaptation strategies. These governance challenges transform adaptation into fragmented, ‎reactive, and often symbolic interventions.‎

Conceptual Contributions

To address these challenges, the paper develops an integrative conceptual framework termed the ‎‎“social–climate change nexus.” This framework emphasizes the co-constitution of climate ‎vulnerability and social inequality, arguing that adaptation outcomes are determined not solely ‎by exposure to climate hazards but by pre-existing structural conditions of inequality, ‎governance quality, and social development.‎

Within this nexus, the paper introduces the concept of “suspended adaptation,” which describes ‎a condition in which societies are locked into continuous cycles of adjustment without structural ‎transformation. In such contexts, adaptation becomes a mechanism for managing survival rather ‎than enabling equitable development.‎

The paper also advances a multi-dimensional understanding of resilience, distinguishing ‎between institutional, economic, social, ecological, and knowledge-based dimensions. This ‎multidimensional approach highlights that resilience is not a singular capacity but an emergent ‎property of interconnected systems.‎

Discussion

The analysis suggests that current global climate governance frameworks, including recent ‎international agreements, increasingly acknowledge the importance of adaptation and justice. ‎However, these frameworks often lack enforceable mechanisms and remain dominated by ‎financial and technocratic logics. Consequently, they risk depoliticizing climate justice by ‎reducing it to funding targets and procedural commitments.‎

Furthermore, the study argues that without addressing structural inequalities in global ‎governance, climate adaptation may reinforce a “survivalist equilibrium,” where vulnerable ‎populations are continuously required to adapt to conditions they did not create.‎

The findings also underscore the importance of social innovation, community participation, and ‎local knowledge systems in enhancing adaptive capacity. However, such approaches must be ‎embedded within broader institutional reforms to avoid shifting responsibility from states to ‎households and individuals.‎

Conclusion

The paper concludes that social development and climate adaptation cannot be treated as ‎separate policy domains. Instead, they must be understood as mutually constitutive processes ‎embedded within global structures of inequality. The proposed “social–climate change nexus” ‎offers a conceptual lens for analyzing these interdependencies and for rethinking adaptation as ‎a transformative, justice-oriented process rather than a narrow survival strategy.‎

Ultimately, achieving socially sustainable adaptation requires not only financial investment but ‎also deep institutional reform, participatory governance, and a redistribution of power and ‎resources at both global and local levels.‎

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate change
Climate debt,, Shared responsibility for development,, Social-climate change nexus,

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