عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
Climate is one of the most important factors in human history and less agricultural activity that does not deal with one or more meteorological factors during the day. This is due to the important role climate that plays in human life, especially agricultural production. Climate plays a key role in the growth and production of crops and its changes directly affect the planting and cultivation of crops. Since the last two decades of the 20th century, the issue of climate change has become one of the most important challenges for mankind. Concerns about the decline in crop yields and food security are among the issues that have raised the issue worldwide. Long-term forecasts of climate change have been considered by various experts to inform the extent of the changes and thus take the necessary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. In general, the present study seeks to answer this research question; could climate change be a threat or an opportunity under the conditions of future climate change, and the effects on date palm?
Matrial and Methods
The present study seeks to answer the question of whether climate change can be an opportunity or threat for tropical trees. In this regard, at first, the date palm cultivation areas in Iran was determined based on climatic data. The long-term trend of palm cultivation areas was then evaluated based on effective agro-climatic indices. Then, based on the CMIP5 models at MarksimGCM database, based on the two radiative forcing RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, the projection of future climate conditions was compared with the baseline period.
The results showed that based on the analysis of effective climatic parameters, there was a significant increasing trend in the area of palm cultivation in Iran. This incremental trend is important for temperature components such as minimum and maximum temperatures, hot days, and thermal accumulation in the palm tree's biological and vegetative thresholds. Based on the projected data and the increase in air temperature in the adjacent areas of date palm and higher latitudes in the central plateau of Iran showed that in these areas the thermal potential in terms of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and thermal accumulation for growth and development in the palm tree's biological and vegetative thresholds. Therefore, climate change for the palm tropical tree in higher latitudes and adjacent areas in the inner and eastern parts of Iran provides the opportunity for growth. Therefore, desert areas in the interior of Iran have the potential of climatic conditions for palm tree cultivation. It is important to change the strategic plans to develop this valuable product in these areas.
In general, the results of the present study showed that: With the increase of air temperature and higher thermal accumulation in high latitudes and adjacent areas and similar to the palm cultivation zones in Iran, in fact new zones of central zones, climatic conditions and temperature potential for cultivation are needed. The palm will enjoy.
The results showed that according to the observation data of date palm cultivation areas in the baseline period (1985-2015), there is a significant increasing trend in effective climatic parameters. Evaluation of thermal accumulation at the palm biomass and vegetative thresholds showed that there was an increasing trend in the long-term thermal accumulation series at the baseline period. Evaluation of effective climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature and thermal accumulation in date palm biomass and vegetation) based on projected data in adjacent regions and higher latitudes in the central Iranian plateau showed that in these areas, the thermal potential in terms of minimum temperature, maximum and there is the potential for heat to grow in the palm tree's biomass. Therefore, climate change for the palm tropical tree in higher latitudes and adjacent areas in the inner and eastern parts of Iran provides the opportunity for growth.