@article { author = {Azizzadeh, Javad and Ahmadi, Hamzeh and Baaghideh, Mohammad and Entezari, Alireza}, title = {Whether climate change is an opportunity or a threat? Evaluation of Potential Climate Change on Tropical Trees of Iran, Case Study: Palm Dates}, journal = {Journal of Climate Research}, volume = {1398}, number = {40}, pages = {61-80}, year = {2020}, publisher = {https://www.irimo.ir/}, issn = {2228-5040}, eissn = {2783-395X}, doi = {}, abstract = {Introuction Climate is one of the most important factors in human history and less agricultural activity that does not deal with one or more meteorological factors during the day. This is due to the important role climate that plays in human life, especially agricultural production. Climate plays a key role in the growth and production of crops and its changes directly affect the planting and cultivation of crops. Since the last two decades of the 20th century, the issue of climate change has become one of the most important challenges for mankind. Concerns about the decline in crop yields and food security are among the issues that have raised the issue worldwide. Long-term forecasts of climate change have been considered by various experts to inform the extent of the changes and thus take the necessary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. In general, the present study seeks to answer this research question; could climate change be a threat or an opportunity under the conditions of future climate change, and the effects on date palm?   Matrial and Methods The present study seeks to answer the question of whether climate change can be an opportunity or threat for tropical trees. In this regard, at first, the date palm cultivation areas in Iran was determined based on climatic data. The long-term trend of palm cultivation areas was then evaluated based on effective agro-climatic indices. Then, based on the CMIP5 models at MarksimGCM database, based on the two radiative forcing RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, the projection of future climate conditions was compared with the baseline period.   Results The results showed that based on the analysis of effective climatic parameters, there was a significant increasing trend in the area of palm cultivation in Iran. This incremental trend is important for temperature components such as minimum and maximum temperatures, hot days, and thermal accumulation in the palm tree's biological and vegetative thresholds. Based on the projected data and the increase in air temperature in the adjacent areas of date palm and higher latitudes in the central plateau of Iran showed that in these areas the thermal potential in terms of minimum temperature, maximum temperature and thermal accumulation for growth and development in the palm tree's biological and vegetative thresholds. Therefore, climate change for the palm tropical tree in higher latitudes and adjacent areas in the inner and eastern parts of Iran provides the opportunity for growth. Therefore, desert areas in the interior of Iran have the potential of climatic conditions for palm tree cultivation. It is important to change the strategic plans to develop this valuable product in these areas. Discussion In general, the results of the present study showed that: With the increase of air temperature and higher thermal accumulation in high latitudes and adjacent areas and similar to the palm cultivation zones in Iran, in fact new zones of central zones, climatic conditions and temperature potential for cultivation are needed. The palm will enjoy. Conclusion The results showed that according to the observation data of date palm cultivation areas in the baseline period (1985-2015), there is a significant increasing trend in effective climatic parameters. Evaluation of thermal accumulation at the palm biomass and vegetative thresholds showed that there was an increasing trend in the long-term thermal accumulation series at the baseline period. Evaluation of effective climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature and thermal accumulation in  date palm biomass and vegetation) based on projected data in adjacent regions and higher latitudes in the central Iranian plateau showed that in these areas, the thermal potential in terms of minimum temperature, maximum and there is the potential for heat to grow in the palm tree's biomass. Therefore, climate change for the palm tropical tree in higher latitudes and adjacent areas in the inner and eastern parts of Iran provides the opportunity for growth.}, keywords = {Agro- climatology,climate change,Date plm tree,Tropical Areas,Cultivation area}, title_fa = {آیا تغییر اقلیم فرصت است یا تهدید؟ (ارزیابی دگرگونی‌های محتمل اقلیمی بر محدوده کشت درختان مناطق گرمسیری ایران، مطالعه موردی؛ نخل خرما)}, abstract_fa = { بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش باغبانی، یکی از حساسترین و آسیب پذیرترین بخشها نسبت به تغییرات آب و هوایی محسوب میشود. تحقیق حاضر در صدد پاسخ به این سوال تحقیق بوده که آیا تغییرات آب و هوایی برای درختان نواحی گرمسیری میتواند فرصت باشد یا تهدید. در این راستا، در ابتدا محدوده کشت نخل خرما در دوره حاضر در ایران براساس اطلاعات اقلیمی مشخص شد. در ادامه روند بلند مدت مناطق کشت نخل براساس شاخص های اقلیم  کشاورزی موثر بررسی شد. در ادامه براساس مدلهای CMIP5 در پایگاه MarksimGCM براساس دو خط سیر واداشتی بدبینانه و حد وسط RCP8.5 و RCP4.5، پیش نگری وضعیت آب و هوای دوره آینده در مقایسه با دوره پایه مشخص گردید. نتایج نشان داد که براساس تحلیل روند فراسنج های اقلیمی موثر، روند افزایشی معنی داری در مناطق کشت نخل ایران در دوره پایه وجود دارد. این روند افزایشی برای مولفه های دمایی مانند دمای کمینه و بیشینه، روزهای داغ و انباشت گرمایی در آستانه های زیستی و رویشی نخل خرما حائز اهمیت می باشد. براساس داده پیش نگری شده و افزایش دمای هوا در مناطق مجاور نخل خرما و عرضهای بالاتر در فلات مرکزی ایران نشان داد که در این مناطق پتانسیل گرمایی از نظر دمای کمینه، بیشینه و توان گرمایی برای رشد و نمو در آستانه های زیستی و رویشی درختان خرما وجود دارد. بنابراین تغییرات آّب و هوایی برای درخت گرمسیری نخل خرما در مناطق عرضهای بالاتر و مجاور در نواحی داخلی و شرقی ایران، فرصت لازم برای رشد و نمو را فراهم می سازد. بنابراین مناطق کویری و بیابانی در نواحی داخلی کشور ایران، پتانسیل اقلیمی لازم برای کشت درختان خرما را دارا می باشد. تغییر برنامه های راهبردی در جهت توسعه این محصول ارزشمند در این نواحی حائز اهمیت می باشد... }, keywords_fa = {اقلیم,کشاورزی,درخت خرما,تغییر اقلیم,مناطق گرمسیری,محدوده کشت}, url = {https://clima.irimo.ir/article_113835.html}, eprint = {https://clima.irimo.ir/article_113835_8dbda451f6beddd2329161fb5407e08e.pdf} }