فراکاوی روند بارش در ایران و ارتباط آن با واداشت های پیوند از دور

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس اقلیم شناسی اداره کل هواشناسی استان کرمانشاه، دکترای آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

2 استادیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه

3 دانشجوی دکترای آب و هوا شناسی، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

     در سال های اخیرکاهش و نوسان بارش در سطح کشور بحران های زیست- محیطی زیادی ایجاد نموده است؛ شناخت دلایل این وردایی ها جهت برنامه ریزی توسسعه پایدار محور ، ضروری می باشد. در این تحقیق ابتدا سری زمانی و روند بارش میانگین کشور و بارش های ایستگاهی بررسی و در نهایت ارتباط بارش کشور با نوسان و تغییر واداشت ها بزرگ اقلیمی تبیین شده است. این پژوهش در دو مرحله انجام گردید: نخست داده های 34 الگوی پیوند از دور از مرکز اقیانوسی و جوشناسی ملی نوآ (NOAA ) و سایر مراکز در دوره آماری 2009- 1965 گردآوری شد؛ سپس داده های بارش ماهانه 36 ایستگاه اصلی هواشناسی کشور با طول دوره ی آماری مشابه از سازمان هواشناسی دریافت گردید. بررسی روندها نشادن داد که اغلب ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه دچار کاهش بارش شده اند؛  به طوری که با استفاده از آزمون من کندال سری زمانی بارش میانگین کشور نشان دهنده روند کاهشی معنادار بارش می باشد. نقشه های چولگی و کشیدگی بارش سالانه نشان دهنده فراوانی بیشتر سال های بارشی کمتر از نرمال در بیشتر نقاط کشور به ویژه در نیمه ی جنوب شرقی و طی دهه ی گذشته است. بررسی روند بارش ایستگاه های مورد مطالعه نشان دهنده کاهش بارش است که در نیمه شمال غربی کشور از سایر مناطق معنی دار تر و شدیدتر است. همچنین در نقشه ضریب تغییر بارش سالانه به طور واضحی نوسانهای سال به سال زیاد بارش بویژه در نیمه جنوب شرقی کشور دیده می شود. با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل مسیر مشخص شد که پویایی و نوسان همرفت در شرق اقیانوس هند (نوسان مادن - جولین)، موثرترین الگوی پیونداز دور کنترل کننده بارش میانگین کشور می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Trend Analysis of Iran's Precipitation and Its Relation to the Teleconnection Forces

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Ahmadi 1
  • Amanallah Fathniya 2
  • Shoaieb Abkharabat 3
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