پیش نگری متغیرهای اقلیمی دهه های آینده در پهنه جنوب شرق ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران. ایران

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. واحد اسلامشهر. تهران. ایران.

3 دانشیارگروه جغرافیا. دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. واحد علوم و تحقیقات. تهران. ایران

4 استادیارگروه جغرافیا. دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. واحد علوم و تحقیقات. تهران. ایران

چکیده

در چند دهه اخیر افزایش دمای زمین باعث بر هم خوردن تعادل اقلیمی کره زمین شده و تغییرات اقلیمی گسترده ای را در اغلب نواحی کره زمین موجب گردیده است که از آن به عنوان تغییر اقلیم یاد می شود. در این پژوهش ، به بررسی متغیر های اقلیمی در شش ایستگاه های سینوپتیک پهنه جنوب شرق ایران (زابل، زاهدان، خاش، ایرانشهر، سراوان و چابهار) از سال 1987 لغایت 2019 پرداخته شد و در دو دوره ی زمانی (2021-2040 و 2041-2060)، با استفاده از ﻣﺪل ﮔـﺮدش ﻛﻠـﻰ (HadCM2 ) بررسی و تحلیل گردید. پس از بررسی و ارزیابی مدل مقادیر متغیرهای اقلیمی در دو سناریو RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 در دوره های مورد مطالعه ریز مقیاس گردید. نتایج ارزیابی دقت مدل LARS-WG در شبیه سازی متغیرهای اقلیمی براساس شاخص های MAE ، RMSE،R2 ،NSE در پهنه جنوب شرق ایران در مرحله صحت سنجی نشان داد که انطباق زیادی بین مقادیر شبیه سازی شده و دوره پایه وجود داشته است. بر اساس نتایج خروجی مدل LARS-WG  افزایش دما در کلیه ایستگاه ها در دو دوره مورد مطالعه را نشان می دهد. میزان افزایش دما در مناطق ساحلی کمتر از سایر مناطق خشکی می باشد. در تمامی ایستگاه ها تغییرات دما به طور یکنواخت و تغییرات بارش، نوسان دارند. مقدار بارش طی فصول زمستان  و بهار در تمامی ایستگاه ها روند افزایشی دارد؛ شرایط اقلیمی آینده از قبیل تعداد روزهای یخبندان، تعداد روزهای داغ، خشک و روزهای تر محاسبه گردید و نتایج نشان داد که در دوره آینده تعداد روزهای داغ و تعداد روزهای خشک نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش می یابد و تعداد روزهای یخبندان کاهشی می باشد. در صورت عدم پایبندی به کاهش گازهای گلخانه ای افزایش متغیرهای اقلیمی دمای حداقل و دمای حداکثر و کاهش بارش در دهه 2041-2060 بیشتر خواهد شد. پیش بینی ماهانه برای دوره های آینده نیز در سناریو های مذکور ، بیانگر این است که گرمترین ماه در استان به طور میانگین در ماه تابستان (ژوئیه)، سردترین ماه در زمستان (دسامبر و ژانویه)، بیشترین بارش ها در زمستان و بهار (دسامبر، ژانویه و مارس) و تبخیر و تعرق در تابستان به بیشترین حد خود می رسد. در نهایت اینکه نتایج بیانگر روند افزایش دما و کاهش بارش در دهه های آینده نواحی جنوب شرق ایران خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Climatic Variable Forecasting for Future Decades in South East Area of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • mahsa farzaneh 1
  • Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari 2
  • Jamalodin Daryabari 3
  • Farideh Asadian 4
1 Ph.D. Student, IslamicAzad , University, Science and Research Branch
2 َAssociate Prof., Islamic Azad University. Islamshahr Brancj,, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Science and Research Branch-Islamic Azad University
4 Assistant Prof., Science and Research Branch-Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]

 
In recent decades, rising global temperatures have upset the climate balance of planet and caused widespread climate change in most parts of the world, known as climate change Index. In the present study, climatic variables in six synoptic stations in the southeastern part of Iran (Zabol, Zahedan, Khash, Iranshahr, Saravan and Chabahar) from 1987 to 2019 were studied in two time periods (2021-2040 and 2041-2060), considering the uncertainty of the general circulation model (Hadcm2) was investigated and analyzed. After reviewing and evaluating the model, the values ​​of climatic variables in two scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were scaled in the studied periods. The results of LARS-WG model accuracy evaluation in simulation of climatic variables based on MAD, RMSE, MSE, MAPE indices in the southeastern part of Iran in the validation stage showed that there was a large correlation between the simulated values ​​and the base period. Based on the output results of LARS-WG model, it shows the increase of temperature in all stations in the two studied periods. The rate of temperature increase in coastal areas is less than other land areas. Temperature changes fluctuate uniformly and precipitation changes fluctuate at all stations. The amount of rainfall during the winter and spring seasons in all stations is increasing; Future climatic conditions such as number of frosty days, number of hot, dry and wet days were calculated and the results showed that in the next period, the number of hot days, the number of dry days will increase compared to the base period and the number of frosty days will decrease. If we do not adhere to the reduction of greenhouse gases, the increase of climatic variables, the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature and the decrease of precipitation will increase in the 2041-2060 decade. Monthly forecasts for future periods in the mentioned scenarios also indicate that the warmest month in the province is on average in summer (July), the coldest month in winter (December and January), the most precipitation in winter and spring (December, January and March) and evapotranspiration peaks in summer. Finally, the results show the trend of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in the coming decades in the southeastern regions of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Forecasting
  • Climate variables
  • South- east area
  • Model LARS-WG

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پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی
دوره 1400، شماره 45 - شماره پیاپی 45
سال دوازدهم | شماره چهل و پنجم| بهار 1400
خرداد 1400
صفحه 97-112

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