بررسی و مستندسازی اشکالات سامانه پایش داده‌های جوی در سازمان هواشناسی ایران با رویکرد آسیب‌شناسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری- هواشناسی کشاورزی-دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آب- دانشکده کشاورزی- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 عضو هیات علمی، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

داده‌های دیده‌بانی شده در ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی زیربنای گستره وسیعی از برنامه‌های اجرایی و مطالعات کاربردی در علوم مختلف می‌باشد و استفاده از این داده‌ها در مطالعات و برنامه‌ریزی‌ها بدون اطمینان از صحت و دقت آن‌ها می‌تواند منجر به نوعی عدم قطعیت در نتایج به‌دست‌آ‌مده شود. یکی از اشکالاتی که در سازمان هواشناسی و سایر ارگان‌های تحقیقاتی مرتبط وجود دارد عدم مستندسازی اشکالات در سامانه دیده‌بانی‌های جوی است. به نحوی که بر اساس مطالعات نگارندگان تا کنون تجربه‌ای از مستندسازی این اشکالات، در منابع داخلی و خارجی مشاهده نشد. بنابراین در این مقاله سعی شده است تا ضمن بررسی مسائل و مشکلات، در سامانه دیده‌بانی و پایش داده‌های جوی سازمان هواشناسی کشور، نسبت به مستندسازی این اشکالات با رویکرد آسیب‌شناسانه اقدام شود. در این پژوهش فرآیند تولید، اندازه‌گیری، ثبت و آماده‌سازی داده‌ها در ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی کشور بررسی شد و ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی استان خراسان رضوی به عنوان نمونه انتخاب و به طور میدانی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. در این پژوهش ضمن بررسی منابع و اسناد بالادستی سازمان هواشناسی کشور و سازمان جهانی هواشناسی، از روش‌هایی نظیر بررسی‌های میدانی، مطالعات موردی و روش‌هایی نظیر توزیع پرسش‌نامه و مصاحبه با افراد صاحب‌نظر و خبره، برای به دست‌آوردن اطلاعات و مستندسازی اشکالاتی که در این فرآیند وجود داشت استفاده شد. عمده اشکالاتی که صحت داده‌ها را تحت تأثیر قرار داده و می‌تواند سبب بروز عدم قطعیت‌هایی در نتایج به دست‌آمده حاصل از مطالعات شود، را می‌توان در مسائل مربوط به نیروی انسانی، مسائل مرتبط با ایستگاه‌ها، مسائل مربوط به تجهیزات و ادوات ،مسائل مدیریتی، و همچنین مسائل مالی و تحریم‌ها خلاصه نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating and documenting the problems of atmospheric data monitoring system in Iran meteorological organization with pathological approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohsen Rahmdel 1
  • Seyed Hossein Sanaei Nejad 2
  • zohreh javanshiri 3
1 Ferdowsi university/phd candiate of Agricultural meteorology
2 Professor, Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 climatoligical research institute. Assistant Researcher, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

 
Introduction:
One of the issues in the Meteorological Organization is the lack of documentation of errors in the process of producing, measuring, recording and preparing data in the atmospheric observation system.  Also, the poor data quality, missing  data, inappropriate spatial density  of meteorological stations are the major problems faced by climatology researchers in Iran. Nonstandard distance of stations, inappropriate co-locating of stations, human errors in reading and recording data, errors in measuring equipment, different methods of measurment, Non maintenance and calibration of station, constructions around the stations, changes in the type of instruments and sensors for atmospheric parameters measurement and station relocation during the statistical period are other problems that affect the accuracy of the meteorological data.
Materials and Methods:
The aim of this study is to investigate and document the problems in the system of monitoring and interpretation of atmospheric data in Iran with a pathological approach. To that end, articles, specialized books, high-end documents such as World Meteorological Organization documents, programs, plans and documents of the Meteorological Organization, guidelines and directives, were reviewed. In addition, field assessments and case studies were conducted using  methods such as preparing a questionnaire and interviewing experts.
Results and discussion:
The results of the questionnaire and interviews with experts showed:
1-                  Synoptic experts have between 70% to 90 % of the required skills.
2-                  Respondents knew between 70% to 90 % of the standards and guidelines.
3-                  Between 50% to 70% of the standards are adhered in the network of meteorological stations.
4-                  Between 50% to 70 % of the required periodic calibrations on equipment are performed at standard intervals.
5-                  Between 50% to 70 % of the equipment used at the stations are accurate and standard.
6-                  Not calibrating and maintaining  stations  reduce  accuracy of data between  10% to 30%.
7-                  Only 10% to 30% of the stations have complete metadata.
8-                  Upper air facilities supply between 50% to 70% of the meteorological requirements.
9-                  Sanctions have reduced our access to upper air, radar and satellite data between 50% to 70%.
10-              Station automation policy, due to reduced human interference in the data process, if implemented correctly, can increase data accuracy between 30% to 50% on average.
11-              If the station automation policy, is implemented regardless of regular training of experts, periodic calibration on equipment and continious quality control of data, it can reduce data quality and accuracy between 30% to 50%.
12-              The mental condition of the synoptic experts, the working and management issues can affect between 70% to 90% of the observer's performance and data accuracy.
13-              Between 30% to 50% of meteorological station data need to be homogenized.
14-              For estimating temperature and precipitation parameters in non-station locations, using interpolation methods  were found appropriate between 50% to 70%.
15-              Remote sensing methods were found appropriate for estimating temperature and precipitation parameters in non-station location  between 70% to 90%.
16-              Between 30% to 50% of meteorological satellite data are available online to our researchers.
17-              Available meteorological radar facilities only provide 30% to 50% of the  radar data required.
18-              Due to restrictions, only about 50% to 70% of radar’s locating were appropriate.
19-              For about 30% to 50% of radars, studies on evaluating and improving the uncertainty in radar data based on the calibration and correction coefficients were taken .
20-              Allocate appropriate government funding to the Meteorological Organization can reduce over 90% of the problems caused by inadequate access to remote sensing data (such as satellites and radars).
The following are some of the major  probems  at the station during field observation.
1- Nonstandard conditions of station and natural climate of the area.
2. Nonstandard methods for observing and adjusting the equipment.
3. Differences in  observing methods.
4- Inaccuracy of the observer.
5. Lack of adequate supervision.
6. Imprecision and inconsistency of data.
7. Lack of support and supply of new meteorological components and equipment.
Conclusion:
Based on the results of the questionnaire and field observation, the most problems that affect on the accuracy of  data are as follows.
1- Insufficient knowledge and skills of synoptic experts in the data process, lack of complete knowledge the relevant standards and rules, lack of compliance with the standards and established rules, lack of precision in the work process and insufficient supervision of the correct process of work by the authorities.
2. Construction of stations in non-standard conditions, Non maintaining and non calibrating of station over time and finally station relocation during the statistical period.
3. Not performing periodic and regular calibrations of equipment at standard time intervals, using of different types of equipment with different brands in the meteorological stations and imprecision and inconsistent data of these brands with each other at standard level, insufficient infrastructure for automatic calibration. Lack of spare parts and support and software problems with these systems
4. Organizational and managerial issues that can directly affect the motivation, mental condition and performance of the observer and  therefore the accuracy of the data.
5. Sanctions have a significant impact on the provision and support of new meteorological equipment and radars.  As well as, a lack of sufficient financial resources has contributed to the organization's inadequate access to new meteorological instruments and so to this type of data.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Documenting
  • Observing
  • monitoring
  • accuracy
  • Precision
  1.  

    1. Beijerse, R. P., 1999. Questions in knowledge management: defining and conceptualizing a phenomenon. Journal of knowledge Management, 3(2), pp. 94-110.
    2. Chiu‐Chi W., Su‐Hui Ch., Yu‐Chen L., 2009. "A model for assessing organizational knowledge inventory", Kybernetes, Vol. 38 Issue: 9, pp.1491-1507, Retrieved December 22, 2018, from https://doi.org/10.1108/03684920910991487.
    3. Elahi, SH. Baharifar, Ali. 2005. Designing a structure for the documentation of manager’s organizational experiences. Management Research in Iran. 9(20): pp.23-52.
    4. Habibi, Arash. 2013. SPSS training. Retrieved February 18, 2020, from https://parsmodir.com/db/spss.php.
    5. Hafeznia, M, R. An introduction to the research method in humanities. 2011. Tehran, Samt Publication. 489pp.
    6. Namdarian, L. 2017. Providing a framework for documenting corporate managers' experiences with a knowledge management approach. 1st National Conference on Management and Global Economy. University of Science and Culture.Tehran.
    7. Jafari Moghadam, S., 2007. Documentation of Managers Experiences from Knowledge Management Approach, second edition. Tehran: Institute of Management research and Education (Ministry of Energy). 276 pp.
    8. Jeddi, A. Moghimi, E. Ahmdi, S, A. Zare, M. 2019. Natural Hazards reduction strategy in Iran based on international law and relations. Volume 6, Issue 1. Spring 2019. PP.1-16.
    9. Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization. 2003. Manual on the Global Observing System. VOLUME I. (Annex V to the WMO Technical Regulations) GLOBAL ASPECTS. WMO-No. 544. Geneva – Switzerland.
    10. Shafee, S. Nowkarizi, M. Jafarzadeh, K. Z. 2017. Documentation of organizational knowledge: The Analysis of the Theoretical principels and practical strategies. Libray and Information Research Journal (Studies and Education& Psichology) Fall2016-Winter2017, Volume 6, Number 2 (12).PP. 5-23.
    11. Strategic Planning Working Group. 2014. Iran Meteorological Organization Strategic Plan (2014-2021), Prespective, Mission, Ideals, Big Goals, Strategies and Expected Results. 23pp.
    12. Wikipedia. 2019. Retrived Mar 15, 2020, from https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect.
    13. World Meteorological Organization. 2010. Guide to Agricultural Meteorological Practices. 2010 Edition. Updated in 2012. WMO-NO.134.
    14. World Meteorological Organization. 2008. Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation. WMO-NO.8. 2008 edition Updated in 2010.
    15. World Meteorological Organization. 2014. Guid to Meteorological Observing and Information Distrubtion System for Aviation Weather system.WMO-No.731.
    16. World Meteorological Organization. 2015. Manual on Codes. 2015 Edition. Updated in 2018. WMO-No.306.