تحلیل سری‌های زمانی دیرپایی فصل بارش در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 جغرافیای طبیعی.دانشکده علوم زمین.دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.تهران.ایرن

2 دانشیار دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سرزمین ایران دارای آب‌وهوای خشک و نیمه‌خشک است و توزیع مکانی­-­زمانی بارش در آن، بسیار نا یکنواخت است. یکی از ابعاد بارش که برای پیش‌بینی‌های زمانی و همچنین برنامه‌ریزی و اقدامات لازم در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب و غذا، اهمیت بِسزایی دارد؛ دوام و دیرپایی فصل بارش است. از این رو در پژوهش پیش رو، ابتدا بر پایه داده‌های روزانه بارش از مجموع 108 ایستگاه اعم از هواشناسی و وزارت نیرو، دیرپایی فصل بارش کشور در دوره مرطوب (سپتامبر- می)، در سری زمانی 25 ساله (1991-2015) برای هر سال محاسبه شد. در مرحله بعد با استفاده از تحلیل خوشه‌ای، پنج پهنه بارشی به ترتیب بسیار دیرپا، دیرپا، میانوند، کوتاه و بسیارکوتاه در محیط سورفر و با روش کریجینگ پهنه‌بندی شد. سپس به منظور بررسی تغییرات دیرپایی فصل بارش، از آزمون من کندال ویرایش شده یو و ونگ (Yue & Wang) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که پهنه یک دارای دیرپاترین طول دوره بارشی بوده، دیرپایی فصل بارشی آنبه طور معنی‌داری در حال افزایش است. در پهنه دو، اگر چه دیرپایی فصل بارشی در حال کوتاه شدن است ولی در بخش‌هایی در دامنه‌های جنوبی البرز افزایش معنی‌دار مشاهده می‌شود. در پهنه سه بویژه در نواحی شرقی و جنوب غربی، فصل بارشی در حال کوتاه شدن و در نواحی مرکزی در حال افزایش است. در پهنه چهار و پنج، فصل بارشی کوتاه و بسیار کوتاه است و روند کاهشی فصل بارشی نیز به صورت معنی‌داری ادامه دارد. بدین ترتیب در اکثر پهنه‌ها، فصل بارش در حال کوتاه‌تر شدن است. تنها در پسکرانه‌های جنوبی دریای خزر تا دامنه‌های جنوبی البرز و دامنه‌های شرقی زاگرس  فصل  بارش به طور معنی‌داری در حال طولانی‌تر شدن است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Time series analysis of rainy season duration in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Sanaei 1
  • Gholamreza Barati 2
  • Alireza Shakiba 2
1 Natural Geography.Earth science faculty. Shahid Beheshti University.Tehran. Iran
2 Associated professor, Earth Science Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction

Iran has an arid and semi-arid climate that 61% of the country receiving less than 250 mm of rainfall and only 4% of the country receiving more than 600 mm of rainfall. This fact indicates a very uneven distribution of precipitation in Iran. On the other hand, given the fact that Iran is located in a dry region, the time variability of precipitation is very high. 85% of Iran is in the arid territory. Drought and water scarcity its main characteristics of Iran's climate (Karimi et al. 2018). After the heat and humidity factors, the third factor is precipitation that one of the 6 most important factors in shaping Iran's climate which is associated with temporal and spatial fluctuations (Masoudian 2003). Increased greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and subsequent climate change, especially in recent years, have caused major changes in this important climate factor, with Iran increasing 0.5 mm in volume over the last half-century (Masoudian 2011). Increased greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and subsequent climate change, especially in recent years, have caused major changes in this important climate factor, with Iran increasing 0.5 mm in volume over the last half-century (Masoudian 2011). On the other hand, forecasts for an increase of 1.5 Celsius degrees in 2030 and 2050 will add to the probable severity of these changes in the future (IPCC 2018).
Materials and methods
In this paper, for the first time, the temporal variations of the rainfall duration of the country during the wet season were considered. In order to achieve this goal, after extracting the beginning and ending days of three-day rainfall and more, the rainfall season duration at 108 stations studied was calculated and first, using hierarchical cluster analysis, zoning the duration precipitation regions of the country. Subsequently, the study of rainfall season fluctuations based on the 25-year time series (1991–2015) was carried out using the Yue & Wang modified Kendall method.
Results and discussion
The results showed the duration of the rainy season in 5 regions (very long, long, short, short and very short). As it was noted, these areas, like the rainfall regions of the country, mostly followed latitude and had more orbital arrangement (Masoudian 2009). Investigating the trend of the duration of rainy season changes in the country showed that these changes decrease significantly in the southern latitudes relative to the northern latitudes as the dry and semi-arid regions of the country, which have the shortest rainfall season, experience the least significant changes. (Modares & Dasilva 2007). Except for the southwestern coastal area of the Caspian Sea and the northwest of the country, significant incremental changes occur during the rainy season, along the southern slopes of central Alborz and the eastern slopes of northern Zagros. It should be noted that the Caspian coastal region is dominated by precipitation and humidity and in the northwest of the country up to the southern slopes of central Alborz, the thunderstorms are dominated pattern. In addition to the eastern slopes of the northern Zagros are prevailing by the thermal radiation climate, and is one of the low rainfall areas of Iran (Masoudian 2009, 2005). Therefore, the duration of the rainy season is increasing in regions with different climates. In general, as we move from north to south and from highlands to plains, inland deserts and coastlines, the long-term changes in the rainy season also decrease significantly. The most significant changes in these changes are mainly seen in the western half of the country and the southern slopes of Alborz and scattered in the northeastern and southern heights of the country.
Conclusion
Regardless of the significant incremental changes mentioned above, in general, the trend of long-term changes in the country during the wet season indicates a significant decrease in most areas and regions of the country. In other words, the country's rainfall regime is more concentrated and the rainfall season is shorter. Considering the importance of the duration of the rainy season and its variations in the growing season, flowering, sprouting (Zhou 2019, Moor & Lauenroth 2017, etc.) and crop yields (Daewoo 2019, Karimi et al. 2018, Maddah et al. 2015, etc.). As well as in the storage and management of water resources, it is hoped that the results of the forthcoming research will be useful in taking steps to achieve water and food security in the coming years.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Time series
  • hierarchical cluster analysis
  • Rainy season duration
  • Mann-Kendall's modified test

مراجع

 
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Alijani, B., O’brien, J., Yarnal, B .2008 Spatial analysis of precipitation intensity and concentration in Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, NO.94, PP.107-124.
Alvan.S.2014. Investigation of rainfall temporal changes in Ardabil plain using statistical analysis, M.Sc. Thesis, Mohaghegh Ardabili University.pp210.
Al-Qadami, A., Abdulla, FA. 2019 Regionalization of Precipitation in Jordan.  Patterns and Mechanisms of Climate, Paleoclimate and Paleo environmental Changes from Low-Latitude Regions: Springer.pp 108-115.
Amekudzi, LK. Yamba, EI. Preko, K., Asare, EO. Aryee, J., Baidu, M., 2015, Variability’s in rainfall onset, cessation and length of rainy season for the various agro-ecological zones of Ghana. Climate, NO.3, PP334-416.
Arvin Spenani.A.Mofidi Khajeh.A. Mazini.F.2012. Determining the spatial temporal pattern of precipitation in Golestan province using cluster analysis. Journal of Spatial Planning.No.6 pp.91-131.
Askareh, H., Razmi, R., 2012, Analysis of annual precipitation changes in northwestern Iran, geography and environmental planning, No. 23.PP.1147-1162.
AShrafi.S., 2010. Precipitation zoning of northwestern Iran using cluster analysis and audit analysis methods, Journal of Climatological Research.No.3.PP 25-42.
Aviad, Y., Kutiel, H., Lavee, H., 2004. Analysis of beginning, end, and length of the rainy season along a Mediterranean–arid climate transect for geomorphic purposes. Journal of arid environments, No.59. PP.189-204.
Babaei Finin.A.Farajzadeh Asl. M., 2002. Patterns of spatial and temporal changes in rainfall in Iran, space planning.No.4, PP.51-60.
Bagherpur.M.Seyedian.M.fathabadi.A.Mohamdadi.A.2017. Evaluation of the efficiency of Mann Kendal test in identifying the trend of series with autocorrelation, Iranian watershed management science and engineering. No.36, PP.11-21.
Choi, G., Kwon, W.T., Boo, K.O, Cha, Y.M., 2008, Recent spatial and temporal changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation across the Republic of Korea, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, No.43, PP. 681-700.
Cox, D., Stuart, A., 1995, some quick sign tests for trend in location and dispersion, Biometrical. NO.42, PP 80-95.
Ghayour, H., Masoudian, A., Azadi, M., Nouri, H., 2011, Temporal and spatial analysis of rainfall events on the southern shores of the Caspian Sea, Geographical Research Quarterly, NO. 25. pp. 1-29.
Ge, Q., Hao, Z., Tian, Y., He, F., Zheng, J., 2011,The rainy season in the Northwestern part of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the 18th and 19th centuries. Quaternary International, NO. 229, PP 16-23.
Hamed, Kh., 2007, Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis, Journal of Hydrology. NO. 349, PP. 350-363.
Hamed, KH. , Rao, AR., 1998, A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for auto correlated data. Journal of hydrology, NO.204. PP. 182-196.
Hirsch, R. M., Slack, J. R., Smith, R. A., 1982. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Water Resource Research, NO.18, PP107–121.
Hirsch, R., Slack, J. R., 1984, Non-parametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence, Water Resource Research, NO20, PP727–732.
Jun, L., Jiang, Z.h., Peng, H.q., Jiang, W., Zhang, J., Xiao-xiao, C., 2011, Comparative study on the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations between rainy season over North of Huaihe area and Meiyu in the yangze-huaihe region, International Conference on Remote Sensing, Environment and Transportation Engineering, 2011, IEEE.
Khaliq, M., Ouarda, T., Gachon, P., Sushama, L., St-Hilaire, A., 2009, Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers, Journal of Hydrology, NO. 368,PP.117-130.
Khosravi.M.Aramesh.M.2012. Climate zoning of Markazi province using cluster factor analysis, Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning.No.2, PP.88-100.
Khorshiddust.A.Shirzad.A.2012. Investigation and analysis of precipitation in the northern region of Iran using cluster analysis and analysis of diagnostic function, geography and planning.No.49, PP.101-118.,
Kousari, MR., Zarch, MAA., 2011, Minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, Arabian Journal of Geosciences,NO4,PP. 907-914.
Lascody, R., Melbourne, N., 2002, the onset of the wet and dry seasons in East Central Florida, a subtropical wet-dry climate. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Melbourne, FL. 2002.
Li, Z., Li,Y. , Shi, X., Li, J., 2017,The characteristics of wet and dry spells for the diverse climate in China. Global and Planetary Change, No9.PP140-149.
Mafakheri, A., Saligheh, M., Alijani, Bakbari, Mehri, 2017, Identification and zoning of temporal changes and uniformity of precipitation in Iran, Natural Geography Research, No. 2, pp. 191-205.
Manley, J., 2009, Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Methods, translated by Moghadam, M., Mohammadi, A., and Mitfi S., Parivar Publications, second edition.
Martinez-Cruz, D.A., Gutiérrez, M., Alarcón-Herrera, M.T., 2020, Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Trends Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) , Stewardship of Future Dry lands and Climate Change in the Global South , pp.129-146.
Maryanji, Z., 2012, Variability of precipitation regime in Iran, PhD thesis, Department of Climatology, University of Isfahan.
Masson-Delmotte ,V., 2018, Global Warming of 1.5 C: An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty: World Meteorological Organization.
Masoudian, A., Ataei, H., 2005, Identification of rainfall seasons in Iran by cluster analysis, Journal of Humanities Research at University of Isfahan, NO.18. PP.1-12.
Masoudian, A., 2003, Iranian Climatic Areas, Journal of Geography and Development, NO. PP.171-184.
Masoudian, A., 2009, Rainfall areas of Iran, Journal of Geography and Development, No.13. PP.79-91.
Masoudian, A., 2012, Iranian Climatology, Sharia Toos Publications.
Mei, C., Liu, J., Chen, M.T., Wang, H., Li ,M., Yu, Y., 2018, Multi-decadal spatial and temporal changes of extreme precipitation patterns in northern China (Jing-Jin-Ji district, 1960–2013) , Quaternary International,NO.476, PP1-13
Modarres, R., da Silva, P.R., 2007. Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Journal of arid environments, NO.344, PP.55-70.
Nazaripour, H., 2011, Synoptic analysis of Iranian rainfall continuity, PhD thesis in Climatology, Sistan and Baluchestan University.
Nazaripour, H., Khosravi, M., 2011, Identification of Precipitation Types by Cluster Analysis Method (Case Study: Zahedan. Iran) , Geography and Environmental Planning, NO. 40, PP. 11-32.
Nazaripour, H., Daneshvar, M.M., 2014, Spatial contribution of one-day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, NO.111.PP, -1751-1758.
Nazeri Tehrani, M., Khalili, K., Ahmadi, F., 2016, Analysis of stationary and regional changes in precipitation in the last half century in Iran, Journal of Water and Soil (Agricultural Sciences and Industries) , No. 2. PP. 643-654.
Onoz, B., Bayazit, M., 2011, Block bootstrap for Mann-Kendall trend test of serially dependent data, Hydrological Processes, NO. 26, PP.3552-3560.
Parry,ML., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., Fischer, G., 2004, Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global environmental change,NO.14 ,PP 53-67.
Patil, M., 2015, Change in Seasonality Index of rainfall in Sangli district. Indian Streams Research Journal, NO.5, PP.1-7..
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