Analyzing the effect of climate indicators on the trend of sea level changes by using statistical models in the northern coast of Oman Sea

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student of Geomorphology, University of Isfahan

2 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Imam Ali

Abstract

The tidal phenomenon leaves the most important effect on the coastline range. By the movement of coastline tension due to tide, waves and coastal currents find the opportunity to exert changes on coastline by the formation of geomorphic shapes in the coast.
As mentioned earlier, three factors including pressure, wind force, and temperature have been considered in the field of presenting a model for forecasting sea level and sea level model is presented according to these variables. The results show that there is a high correlation between monthly parameters of sea level, temperature and atmosphere pressure. On average, monthly sea level in the stations of Jask and Chabahar in the research periods indicated very high seasonal changes with climate parameters such as temperature, pressure and wind rate. Increasing trend of sea level and temperature and decreasing trend of pressure in Oman Sea show gradual changes of climate of this research. Multi-correlation coefficient between parameters of MSL, P, W and T shows that there is a significant correlation between these parameters, and as we expected, there is a reverse correlation between MSL and P that is related to reverse effect of barometric pressure on the sea level.
During 20 years period in the stations of Jask and Chabahar increasing trend of sea level in Jask and Chabahar are 80 mm and 30mm respectively. Yet, the highest range of sea level changes in Jask (about 460mm) in comparison to Chabahar (about 400mm) can be related to the changes of wind blow. The highest rate of Wind direction for Jask port is from south and west. . In multi variable correlation between the variables of temperature, pressure and wind rate with sea level in both stations, correlation between temperature and wind with sea level is direct and reverse between pressure and sea level. The rate of increase for tidal gauge datum is about 0.33 mm in every month. So, we can anticipate about 396 mm uprising of water in northern coast of Oman for the next century. According to tidal gauge information in Chabahar, the amount of sea level rise is about 0.12 mm every month. So, it is necessary to have a concise and exact investigation about the procedures related to environments of coastlines and research about tidal condition of region and parameters affecting climate.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Climate Research
Volume 1397, Issue 35
March 2019
Pages 71-82

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