Statistical and synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in Karkheh and Dez catchments

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Student of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran

2 Associate Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran

Abstract

Heavy rains are a risk factor for natural disasters such as floods. Therefore, identifying and predicting their occurrence is one of the measures that can reduce the damage caused by it. This study was with purpose analyze and explain heavy rainfall using statistical-synoptic methods. For this purpose, precipitation data from 14 synoptic and rainfall stations of Karkheh and Dez basins in a period of 60 years (1959-2019) were used. In this regard, first, using the probability distribution function of the final limit of type one (Gamble), the heavy rain threshold was determined. The results obtained from heavy rainfall thresholds showed that the average rainfall of more than 40.7 mm in Karkheh basin and the average rainfall of more than 47 mm in Dez basin are considered as heavy rainfall. The average number of days of heavy rainfall in Karkheh basin is 118 days and Dez basin is 81 days. The flood threshold of Karkheh basin is lower than Dez basin. Therefore, Karkheh rains occur more suddenly and irregularly, while the rains in the Dez basin have more normal time series. As a result, Karkheh basin is more vulnerable to floods than Dez basin in terms of increased heavy rainfall. The results of synoptic analysis showed that in all models, synoptic systems of Sudanese and Sudanese-Mediterranean integration systems have played an effective role in creating heavy rainfall simultaneously in both Karkheh and Dez basins. The deepening of the Mediterranean submarine also activates the humid low-pressure system on Sudan and the Red Sea. The Sudanese system causes heavy rainfall by moving north and northeast of the Mediterranean coast over the study area. The main source of moisture is the Arabian Sea, the Oman Sea, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.



Heavy rains are a risk factor for natural disasters such as floods. Therefore, identifying and predicting their occurrence is one of the measures that can reduce the damage caused by it. This study was with purpose analyze and explain heavy rainfall using statistical-synoptic methods. For this purpose, precipitation data from 14 synoptic and rainfall stations of Karkheh and Dez basins in a period of 60 years (1959-2019) were used. In this regard, first, using the probability distribution function of the final limit of type one (Gamble), the heavy rain threshold was determined. The results obtained from heavy rainfall thresholds showed that the average rainfall of more than 40.7 mm in Karkheh basin and the average rainfall of more than 47 mm in Dez basin are considered as heavy rainfall. The average number of days of heavy rainfall in Karkheh basin is 118 days and Dez basin is 81 days. The flood threshold of Karkheh basin is lower than Dez basin. Therefore, Karkheh rains occur more suddenly and irregularly, while the rains in the Dez basin have more normal time series. As a result, Karkheh basin is more vulnerable to floods than Dez basin in terms of increased heavy rainfall. The results of synoptic analysis showed that in all models, synoptic systems of Sudanese and Sudanese-Mediterranean integration systems have played an effective role in creating heavy rainfall simultaneously in both Karkheh and Dez basins. The deepening of the Mediterranean submarine also activates the humid low-pressure system on Sudan and the Red Sea. The Sudanese system causes heavy rainfall by moving north and northeast of the Mediterranean coast over the study area. The main source of moisture is the Arabian Sea, the Oman Sea, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.



Heavy rains are a risk factor for natural disasters such as floods. Therefore, identifying and predicting their occurrence is one of the measures that can reduce the damage caused by it. This study was with purpose analyze and explain heavy rainfall using statistical-synoptic methods. For this purpose, precipitation data from 14 synoptic and rainfall stations of Karkheh and Dez basins in a period of 60 years (1959-2019) were used. In this regard, first, using the probability distribution function of the final limit of type one (Gamble), the heavy rain threshold was determined. The results obtained from heavy rainfall thresholds showed that the average rainfall of more than 40.7 mm in Karkheh basin and the average rainfall of more than 47 mm in Dez basin are considered as heavy rainfall. The average number of days of heavy rainfall in Karkheh basin is 118 days and Dez basin is 81 days. The flood threshold of Karkheh basin is lower than Dez basin. Therefore, Karkheh rains occur more suddenly and irregularly, while the rains in the Dez basin have more normal time series. As a result, Karkheh basin is more vulnerable to floods than Dez basin in terms of increased heavy rainfall. The results of synoptic analysis showed that in all models, synoptic systems of Sudanese and Sudanese-Mediterranean integration systems have played an effective role in creating heavy rainfall simultaneously in both Karkheh and Dez basins. The deepening of the Mediterranean submarine also activates the humid low-pressure system on Sudan and the Red Sea. The Sudanese system causes heavy rainfall by moving north and northeast of the Mediterranean coast over the study area. The main source of moisture is the Arabian Sea, the Oman Sea, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Climate Research
Volume 1401, Issue 52 - Serial Number 52
Vol.13, No. 52, Winter 2023
March 2023
Pages 37-53

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