Estimation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) and Uncertainty Analysis through a Synthetic Approach of Monte-Carlo Simulation and Hydrologic Modeling (Case Study: Qomroud Basin)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 1- Associate professor , ASMERC

2 Assistant professor of water resource faculty in Tarbiat modarres university

Abstract

A wide spectrum of resulting damages from floods throughout the world, affirms the high importance of design flood determination in order to dam sustainability and targeting to control PMF. This investigation aims to estimate PMF and analyze its uncertainty on Qomroud river basin with respect to flood controlling importance in the region. Hence, for PMF estimation two general approaches are considered as follows: 1) By using statistics and correlation functions between maximum precipitation and maximum inflow values in different return periods, the PMFs corresponding to each PMP are estimated. In the statistical method, by linear regression for PMP and maximum inflow values, the PMF is estimated about 485.5 m3 /s. 2) The PMFs are estimated throughapplication of hydrologic simulation method and rainfall-runoff model by HEC-1.The uncertainty analysis of obtained results from the second approach has been processed by considering available uncertainties in the modeling and input datasets. For this purpose, amplitude and spectrum of uncertainty changes of PMF hydrograph corresponding to the range of changes and various compounds in critical time of PMP occurrence have been defined using uncertainty analysis of derived results through Monte-Carlo flood simulation model. The results indicated the PMF values on the study area will be in a range from 432 to 536 m3/s.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Climate Research
Volume 1398, Issue 38 - Serial Number 38
Vol. 10- No. 38-2019
September 2020
Pages 1-15

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