Introduction

In this study, the climatic capacity of the southern strip of Iran is examined using a multi-criteria analysis method and the Ward method. The concept of climatic capacity encompasses the collective effects of positive elements like effective rainfall, degree days, and surface waters, as well as negative elements like extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, and storms. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the climatic capacity of the southern strip of Iran, a region characterized by diverse climatic conditions. Understanding this capacity is essential for sustainable development planning and management of water resources, especially in the face of climate change.

Materials and Methods

Data for this study were collected from the Water Organization and the Meteorological Organization, supplemented by satellite data from Landsat and MODIS satellites. A total of 21 factors impacting the climatic capacity of the region were considered at the county level, covering 98 counties in total. This data was compiled into a numerical matrix, which served as the input for clustering analysis using the Ward method. The Ward method is known for minimizing variance within clusters, making it a suitable choice for this study. The variables included ranged from precipitation and temperature patterns to the frequency of extreme weather events.

The data collection involved gathering meteorological information, water resources data, and remote sensing data to ensure a comprehensive analysis. Meteorological data included daily rainfall, temperature, wind speed, and visibility records. Water resource data focused on the availability and quality of water sources, while remote sensing data provided information on land cover and vegetation indices. The numerical matrix was used to classify the counties into 10 clusters based on their climatic characteristics.

Results and Discussion

Our findings indicate that Cluster 4, with a score of 63.6 in positive climatic capacity, emerged as the cluster with the highest climatic potential. This cluster includes counties such as Andika, Izeh, Baghmalek, Behbahan, Ramhormoz, Lali, Masjed Soleiman, Haftkel, and Bandar Abbas. These counties benefit from favorable precipitation levels, moderate temperatures, and reduced exposure to extreme weather events. Conversely, Cluster 6, with a score of 34.45, was identified as the most disadvantaged cluster in terms of climatic capacity. This cluster encompasses counties like Iranshahr, Mehristan, Sarbaz, Hendijan, Bashagard, Bandar Lengeh, Parsian, Khamir, Rudan, Sirik, Minab, Deylam, Kangan, Asaluyeh, Gerash, Lamerd, and Mehr. These areas face significant climatic challenges, including high temperatures, low precipitation, and frequent extreme weather events.

The clustering results provide a detailed understanding of the climatic strengths and weaknesses of different regions within the study area. Cluster 4, identified as the most favorable cluster, demonstrates a high climatic capacity due to the combination of adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures, which support agricultural activities and water resource availability. On the other hand, Cluster 6 faces numerous challenges, such as high temperatures and low precipitation, which pose significant constraints to sustainable development and water resource management.

The identification of these climatic clusters offers valuable insights for policymakers and planners. The regions with high climatic potential can be prioritized for investments in agriculture, water resource management, and infrastructure development. Conversely, the disadvantaged clusters may require targeted interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and enhance their resilience. For instance, implementing water-saving technologies, improving irrigation systems, and developing drought-resistant crop varieties could be beneficial for these regions.

Understanding the climatic capacities and limitations of this region is crucial for water resource management planning, drought management, and addressing extreme climatic events, especially under the influence of future climate change. The analysis highlights the need for region-specific strategies to address the diverse climatic challenges faced by the counties in southern Iran.

Conclusion

The identification of climatic capacities and limitations in southern Iran can significantly contribute to sustainable development planning in the region. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into areas with high and low climatic potential, enabling policymakers to make informed decisions to enhance resilience against climate change impacts. Recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of different areas can guide the allocation of resources and the implementation of adaptation strategies.

The study underscores the importance of considering climatic capacity in development planning, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather events. By identifying a reas with high climatic potential, policymakers can focus on enhancing agricultural productivity, water management, and infrastructure development. Conversely, regions with low climatic capacity can benefit from targeted interventions to address specific vulnerabilities and improve their resilience to climatic stresses.

Keywords

Climatic capacity, multi-criteria analysis, Ward method, clustering, southern Iran, sustainable development, water resource management, climate change adaptation, extreme weather events, agricultural productivity, resilience, drought management, precipitation patterns, temperature variability, regional planning