Journal of Climate Research

Journal of Climate Research

Influence of climate extremes on production of wheat and barley in West Azerbaijan province, IRAN

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences. Tabriz university.Iran
2 Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, East Azerbaijan, Iran
3 Professor, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, East Azerbaijan, Iran
4 Faculty of Natural Resources، kurdistan university, sanandaj
10.22034/jcr.2025.489155.1671
Abstract
Human and natural phenomena have been significantly affected by recent climate changes (IPCC, 2021). Seasonal or periodic climate changes in a region can have a severe impact on living conditions (Jake et al., 2020). These changes have significantly affected arid and semi-arid regions around the world (El-Rawy et al., 2023). Due to climate change, the hydrological cycle has resulted in more frequent floods, droughts, and other destructive phenomena (IPCC, 2021). Climate change affects weather factors such as humidity, wind, air pressure, and cloud cover by altering air temperature and rainfall norms (IPCC, 2021). Over the past thirty years, the Earth has warmed significantly compared to earlier decades, and climate change now represents a serious threat to society (Dahal et al., 2018; Dai et al., 2016). Climate change has significant impacts on public health, hydropower production, tourism, textile industries, water supply, and food security at both global and local levels (Adisa et al., 2018). Temporal-spatial variations in rainfall and extreme air temperatures have been investigated worldwide (Santoz et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2016). Numerous scientific investigations have concentrated on the seasonal and annual changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of various weather parameters (Forster, P. M. et al., 2023). The primary cause of climate change is the increase in greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, resulting from human activities (IPCC, 2021). CO2 may cause global warming in the next century (IPCC,2021). Iran receives less than one-third of the global average rainfall due to its location in arid and semi-arid regions, resulting in limited water resources within the country (Salehi et al., 2020; Biabanaki et al., 2013). Rainfall and temperature are essential elements in the climate, and their variations can alter the climate structure at any location (Mazidi et al., 2022). Therefore, analyzing temperature and precipitation trends across various temporal and spatial scales significantly contributes to climatological research (Mazidi et al., 2022). Academic studies have shown that temperature has increased worldwide over the past century (IPCC, 2023). A study by Chervenkov et al. (2023) examined the day and night temperature patterns in central and southeastern Europe. Several studies have focused on the importance of the effect of rainfall on the climate system, including Tiwari et al., 2019 and Talaee et al., 2014. The rainfall time series were analyzed using nonparametric tests (Dawood et al., 2023). Darand et al. (2013) investigated the changes in extreme rainfall and temperature indices in Kermanshah in Iran from 1961 to 2011. The study indicated a decrease in extreme rainfall indices related to days with a minimum of 5 and 10 mm of precipitation, consecutive wet periods, and the total rainfall of wet days. In recent years, increased human activity has led to a rise in greenhouse gas concentrations, causing global warming. If this trend continues, significant changes in the global climate can be expected (Forster et al., 2024). These changes may have favorable, neutral, or even unfavorable effects depending on the conditions of each region (Janjua, 2014). According to Yadav et al. (2018), certain regions of the world, particularly those situated above 55 °N, have beneficial effects on agricultural production owing to climate change. The negative effects of this change are severe in the hot and dry regions (Sinclair et al., 2024). Climate change has significantly affected various sectors of society, with particular emphasis on water and food security (Mirzabaev et al., 2023). Water and food shortages are global issues that have a severe impact on arid and semi-arid regions (Golla, 2021). Furthermore, the projected population growth is anticipated to exceed 9 billion by 2050, combined with the decreasing availability of arable land, which poses a significant challenge to ensuring food security for this population (Lan et al., 2023). Evaluating the possible effects of climate change on agriculture and water supply is a major concern for both policymakers and scientists (Roy et al., 2022). In addition, global warming significantly alters temperature distribution patterns (Cheshmehzangi,2020) and precipitation (Liu & Allan, 2013). The locations where crops like wheat and barley are produced will be affected by changes in these patterns. For example, the area of wheat production at risk of experiencing very high temperatures during critical growth phases is expected to double by 2030 and triple by 2050 (Baek et al., 2022). Therefore, analyzing extreme precipitation events is an important topic in climatology (Gimeno et al., 2022). The predicted climate change for the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) shows an increase in drought conditions and an expected regional warming trend at a rate of 0.2 to 0.5 °C every ten years (Ahmadalipour and Moradkhani. 2018). With an increase in the frequency of hot nights and days, the MENA region has experienced fewer cold nights and days, higher extreme temperature values, and a significant and consistent warming trend since the mid-20th century (Ahmadalipour & Moradkhani, 2018; Driouech et al., 2020).
Keywords

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