Journal of Climate Research

Journal of Climate Research

Modeling the impacts of climate change on geographic distribution of the genus Trametes

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Anooshe Kafash 1
Masoomeh Ghobadnejhad 2
1 Department of Biotechnology, Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Biotechnology, Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology (IROST), Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/jcr.2024.197740
Abstract
Introduction

Evidence for the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity is mounting, showing that climate change is one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity (Chen et al., 2011; Dubey and Shine,2011; Hannah, 2015; Terribile et al., 2018; Archis et al., 2018). Climatechange can affect the diversity and composition of species within bothterrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (Diaz et al., 2003; Dijkstra et al., 2011; Ruiz-Labourdette et al., 2013;Hannah, 2015; Liu et al., 2018). It is predicted that some species will become more dominant while others will decline or disappear (Hannah, 2015). While the negative impact of climate change is well documented on some taxonomic groups like vertebrates and plants species (Hannah, 2015) little is known about the negative impacts of climate change on fungi and macro fungi(Shrestha et al., 2014; Burgess et al., 2017; Gao et al., 2019; Hao et al.,2020).

Macro fungi are important components of ecosystems and play important roles in nutrient cycling, decomposition, symbiosis, and food sources for many animals and humans. However, climate change can have negative impacts on macro fungi, such as altering their distribution and diversity thus, it is necessary to investigate potential impacts of climate change on them (Cao et al., 2021). Recent studies have shown that climate change will have negative impacts on Iran’s biodiversity (Yousefi et al., 2019).  However, little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the diverse taxonomic groups in the country particularly macro fungi (Yousefi et al., 2019). Thus, the aim of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on distribution of the genus Trametes in north of Iran. 

Materials and methods

Distribution records of the genus Trametes were collected during our fieldwork from 2000 to 2022 in Iran. Current and future climate data (Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)) (Bio2), Isothermality (Bio3), Temperature Seasonality (Standard Deviation) (Bio4), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), Precipitation of Driest Month (Bio14), Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) (Bio15)) were obtained from CHELSA high resolution climatologies version 2.1 (Kargeret al., 2017). For future climate we considered following five CMIP6 (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MR-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL.

We applied an ensemble approach, using four distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models (McCullagh & Nelder 1989), Generalized Additive Models (Hastie & Tibshirani 1990), Maximum Entropy Modelling (Phillips et al. 2006) and Random Forest (Breiman 2001)) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also identified the most important climatic predictor of the genus distribution (Phillips et al. 2006). In this study AUC and TSS were used to assess the performance of the model.

Results & Discussion

According to the AUC and TSS the model performed well (AUC=0.942 and TSS=0.811). The model showed that under current climate the genus has 36,456km2 suitable habitats but the genus suitable habitats will decrease to 14,749 km2. We found that the genus will lose 60% of its suitable habitat under the climate change (2070 SSP585). Our results are in line with previous studies that have shown that fungi species will lose their suitable habitats under future climate change. For instance, Gua et al. (2017) have shown that Tricholoma matsutake will lose considerable proportions of its suitable habitat due to climate change. However, it is predicted that some species like Ophiocordyceps sinensis will expand their range under the changing climate (Shrestha and Bawa, 2014). Results also showed that precipitation of driest month and precipitation seasonality are the most important predictors of the genus distribution. These findings are also in line with previous studies that have identified temperature and precipitation of driest and warmest months as the most important determinants of fungi species distribution (Yuan et al.,2015; Yuan et al., 2019).

Conclusion

Iran is a biodiversity rich country in Asia hosting high diversity of macro fungi (Ghobad-Nejhad et al., 2020). In this study for the first time, we predicted the negative impacts of climate change on macro fungi in Iran. We believe that the stable suitable habitats identified in this study for the genus Trametes have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran under the changing climate.

Keywords : Distribution pattern, Ensemble modeling, Conservation, Trametes
Keywords
Distribution pattern
Ensemble modeling
Conservation
Trametes
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Journal of Climate Research
Volume 1403, Issue 58 - Serial Number 58
Vol. 15, No. 58, ُSummer 2024
Autumn 2024
Pages 1-9