Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Research Group of Environmental Engineering and Pollution Monitoring, Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development, RCESD, Department of Environment, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran
2
Master in Financial Mathematics Allameh Tabataba’i University
10.22034/jcr.2026.582924.1735
Abstract
Introduction
Climate change represents one of the most pressing global threats, profoundly altering natural patterns and exacerbating social vulnerabilities. Driven primarily by human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures reached a record 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, with accelerating trends since the 1970s at 0.20°C per decade. This has disrupted precipitation, increased extreme weather events like floods and droughts, and affected ecosystems, as evidenced by reduced Arctic Sea ice and rising sea levels at 4.1 mm per year from 2016 to 2025. These changes extend beyond environmental impacts, posing significant challenges to social development, including health, food security, livelihoods, and migration. Vulnerable groups in developing countries are disproportionately affected, with over 56% of climate-related litigation since 2020 occurring there. Social vulnerability indicators such as age, gender, ethnicity, income, and access to services amplify health impacts, while projections indicate temperature rises of 1.4–5.8°C by 2100, threatening water resources and agricultural productivity, particularly in regions like the Himalayas and Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change deepens economic inequalities, fosters migration (potentially displacing 62 million working-age individuals by 2100), and highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches. Despite extensive research, comprehensive systematic reviews using socio-ecological systems (SES) frameworks are limited, creating a research gap. This study aims to systematically examine climate change's impacts on social development, emphasizing environmental hazards, through an SES lens to identify linkages, evidence from international cases, and future research needs.
Materials and Methods
This study employs a qualitative analytical-descriptive approach based on the SES framework by Ostrom, which facilitates structured analysis of complex socio-ecological interactions. The methodology is divided into three levels: (1) Explaining the classification method grounded in SES framework and international experiences, identifying systems and subsystems endogenously linked to climate change via qualitative content analysis of international documents; (2) Identifying international examples of climate-social development linkages in SES subsystems, with a focus on environmental hazards, through a systematic review of scientific articles, reports (e.g., IPCC, Copernicus), and case studies; (3) Direct and indirect analysis of linkages, where indirect analysis examines interactions between the "social development" subsystem and other SES subsystems, emphasizing social elements and environmental hazards, while direct analysis focuses on social development dimensions like vulnerability of groups (women, children), climate migration, inequality, and poverty, drawing on empirical evidence from credible sources. The SES framework structures analysis into three core systems: resource system (e.g., land use, and use change and forestry, coastal zones, environment, waste, water), actor system (e.g., energy, buildings, transport, industry, agriculture, health, tourism), and governance system (e.g., economy-wide, public sector, finance, rural, urban, and social development). Data sources include peer-reviewed journals, international reports (e.g., NOAA, World Bank, FAO), and studies from 2014–2025, ensuring a global, interdisciplinary perspective without geographic boundaries.
Results and Discussion
The analysis reveals multifaceted linkages between climate change and social development across SES subsystems, with environmental hazards acting as key mediators. In resource system, hazards like floods, droughts, and ecosystem degradation exacerbate social vulnerabilities: land use changes lead to forced rural-urban migration and inequality; coastal areas face salinity and ecosystem loss, reducing livelihoods and health; environmental degradation causes habitat fragmentation and service decline, impacting nature-dependent communities; waste mismanagement amplifies pollution and inequities; water scarcity from droughts and floods heightens access disparities. In actor system, hazards disrupt human activities: energy inequality worsens poverty; buildings suffer from heat islands, affecting housing equity; transport disruptions limit mobility; industrial pollution and transitions cause job losses; agriculture faces yield reductions, threatening food security; health sees increased heat-related deaths and diseases; tourism experiences biodiversity loss, pressuring local economies. In governance system, hazards induce economic shocks (e.g., inflation from temperature rises), strain public services, increase financial burdens, and widen urban-rural divides. Direct impacts on social development dimensions include: health (e.g., heatwaves causing mental health issues, intergenerational effects on children); livelihoods (droughts reducing agricultural resilience); food/water security (disrupted production leading to malnutrition); migration (displacement from sea-level rise); gender inequality (women's increased care burdens); poverty (regressive effects on low-income groups); human security (resource conflicts); and governance (limited participation and indigenous knowledge integration). Indirect effects highlight subsystem interactions, such as resource degradation amplifying actor vulnerabilities and governance failures. Discussions emphasize the need for ecosystem-based adaptations, low-carbon innovations, gender-sensitive policies, and enhanced institutional capacity to build social resilience, addressing gaps in long-term modeling and local knowledge integration.
Conclusion
Climate change profoundly undermines social development through environmental hazards, necessitating integrated SES-based strategies for mitigation and adaptation. By highlighting direct and indirect impacts, this study underscores the urgency of equitable policies, interdisciplinary research, and global cooperation to foster sustainable social progress amid escalating climate risks.
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