Journal of Climate Research

Journal of Climate Research

Projecting precipitation in Northwest Iran based on CMIP6

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 . Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences. Tabriz, Iran
2 Professor, University of Tabriz, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Department of Climatology
3 Professor of Climatology- Department of Tabriz University
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Climatology, Tabriz University
Abstract
Climate change refers to a significant and sustained alteration in the average weather data over a specific period of time. This time period is typically ten years or longer and involves changes in the mean climatic conditions or statistically significant changes in the distribution of weather phenomena. One of the climate elements affected by climate change is precipitation. Precipitation is the third factor in the differences of Iran's climate and is the most fluctuating climatic element. Even slight changes in the type (solid and liquid precipitation) and amount of precipitation can disrupt the natural environmental balance. Due to the importance of precipitation, understanding it is crucial and has implications for the management of water resources, agriculture, and other systems. To understand the effects of climate change in the future, research institutions worldwide have simulated the global climate using Global Climate Models (GCMs). GCMs are extensively used to assess the impacts of global warming on weather, climate, and the water cycle. However, the lower resolution of these models hinders the detection of variable features such as precipitation, and using them introduces uncertainties, often showing significant deviations compared to observed data. On the other hand, higher-resolution climate data is needed to accurately evaluate the effects of climate change. Therefore, to address the issue of the large-scale nature of climate model data, statistical correction methods (bias correction) or downscaling techniques are used. Over the past decades, several research groups and international collaborations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have provided sets of predicted data on past and future global climate conditions using global climate models. Simulations from global climate models are archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which is one of the most important resources for studying 21st-century climate conditions. Recently, a new version of reports on climate models has been released, which represents an advancement in physical processes and higher spatial resolution compared to previous reports. This serves as a scientific basis for evaluating past and future changes in climate conditions. In this study, the daily precipitation outlook of the northwest region of Iran for the period 2021-2100 was investigated based on the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under four scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, SSP 2-4.5, SSP 3-7, SSP 5-8.5). Among the 26 models studied, the MPI-ESM-1-2LR model was selected as the preferred model for predicting the region's daily precipitation. This model is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model, available in both high and low resolutions, and is the fundamental basis for CMIP6 models and the prediction of climate variables at seasonal and decadal scales. It is generated with a horizontal resolution of 1.9˚*1.9˚ (approximately 250 square kilometers). Due to the large scale of the model data, the data were first bias-corrected using the delta change method, and then the precipitation characteristics of the region were analyzed in terms of percentage change compared to the baseline period, precipitation trends in the future period, and precipitation variations in each month under the four scenarios. The results showed that the precipitation outlook of the region under different scenarios will have both decreasing and increasing values. The highest percentage of change and decreasing trend was observed under the SSP 3-7 scenario (12% decrease compared to the baseline period), which is more prominent in the southwest part of the region. On the contrary, the highest increase in precipitation values was observed under the SSP 1-2.6 scenario, showing an average increase of over 6% in precipitation compared to the baseline period, especially in the central parts of the region. The highest decreasing and increasing trends under all four scenarios were observed in the Sardasht and Tabriz stations, respectively. Another important finding of this study is the increase in heavy precipitation events and their displacement towards the warm months of the year, which will cause uneven distribution of precipitation in limited days. From a seasonal perspective, the predicted precipitation changes in the model compared to the baseline period showed decreasing trends in spring and winter and increasing trends in summer and autumn. The interpolated maps and diagrams showed that although climate change is a global phenomenon, the studied region behaves differently in terms of precipitation changes due to the differences in climate in each part of it.
Keywords

  • Ansari, Samin., Dehban, Hossein., Zareian, Mohammad Javad., Farokhnia, Ashkan. (2022). Investigation of temperature and precipitation changes in Iran's basins in the next 20 years based on the output of the CMIP6 model. Iranian Water Research Journal, 16(1), 11-24.
  • Babaeian, I., Karimian, M., Modirian, R., & Mirzaei, E. (2019). Future climate change projection over Iran using CMIP5 data during 2020-2100. Nivar, 43(104-105), 62-71.
  • Bagherpour M, S. M Seyyedian, A Fathabadi, A Mohammadi (2017) Evaluation of Mann-Kendall Test for Identification of Autocorrelation Series. Iranian Journal of Watershed Management Science and Engineering 36: 11-21.
  • Jahanbakhsh Asl, S., Khorshiddoust, A., Alinejad, M. H., & Pourasghr, F. (2016). Impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature by taking the uncertainty of models and climate scenarios (case study: Shahrchay basin in Urmia). Hydrogeomorphology, 2(7), 107-122.
  • Chamani, R., & Azari, M. (2020). Hydrological response to future climate changes in Chehelchay Watershed in Golestan Province.
  • Khansalari, Sakineh., Mohamadi, Atefeh. (2023). Projection of extreme precipitation over Iran based on the ensemble approach of CMIP6 models in the near future (2026-2050) with rank-based weighting. 10.22059/JESPHYS.2023.351711.1007476
  • Khorshiddoust, Ali , Mohammadi, GholamHasan., Aghlmand, Fariba., Hoseini Sadr, Atefeh, 2018, Statistical-descriptive analysis of the relationship between atmospheric parameters and air pollution in Tabriz, Environmental Risk Management, No, 2, pp 217-230.
  • Rostamzadeh, H., Rezaei Banafsheh, M., & Hosseinnejad, A. (2019). Identification of non-spatial patterns Hourly variations of the temperature on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis (Case Study: Synoptic Station of Tabriz). Climate Change and Climate Change, 1(1), 56-76.
  • Rasouli, A. A., Ostadi, E., & Azizzadeh, M. R. (2019). Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration Index inside the Northwest of Iran. Geography and Planning, 23(69), 87-103.
  • Rezaei, M., Nohtani, M., Abkar, A., Rezaei, M., & Mirkazehi, R. M. (2014). Performance evaluation of statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in forecasting temperature indexes in two arid and hyper-arid regions (case study: Kerman and Bam).
  • Rezaei Banafsheh. M., Jalali, A. T., Zarghami, M., & Asghari, M. A. (2015). Investigate climate change impacts on groundwater levels in the Tasuj basin by the statistical downscaling method.
  • Zarrin, A., & Dadashi Roudbari, A. A. (2020). Projection of the Long-Term Outlook Iran's Future Temperature Based on the Output of the coupled model intercomparison project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 46(3), 583-602.
  • Sari Sarraf B, Jalali Onsroudi T, Sarafruozeh F (2016) Impacts of Global Warming on the Climate of Cities in the Lake Urmia Basin." Biannual Journal of Urban Ecology Researches. 6:33-48.
  • Saligeh, M., Naserzadeh, M., & Ghaffari, A. (2018). Investigation of spring convection loads of northwest Iran using unstable indices (a case study of Tabriz station). Geography and Planning, 22(64), 129-147.
  • Faramarzi Fard S, Ghasemi M (2013) Analysis of the relationship between spatial factors and snowy days in Iran, Journal of Meteorological Organization 80:3-14.
  • Ghasabfeiz, mostafa., eslami, hossein, 2017, Variations Trend Evaluation of Rainfall Using Mann-Kendall and Linear Regression in Khuzestan Province, Water Engineering, N2, pp 121-113.
  • Mohammadi, F., Zarin, A., & Babaeiyan, I. (2015). The ability of the RegCM4 climate model to simulate precipitation in the cold period of Fars. case study: 1990-2010 period. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 41(3), 511-524.
  • Masodian, S. (2009). Precipitation regions of Iran. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 7(13), 79-91.
  • Masoompour Samakosh, J., Miri, M., & Purkamar, F. (2018). Assessment of CMIP5 climate models with observed precipitation in Iran. Iranian Journal of Geophysics, 11(4), 40-53.
  • Mansouri, A., Aminnejad, B., & Ahmadi, H. (2018). Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on Inflow Runoff into the Karun-4 Dam Based on IPCC's Fourth and Fifth Report. The JWSS-Isfahan University of Technology, 22(2), 345-359.
  • Mirabbasi R, Dinpashoh Y (2013) An analysis of the trend of changes in precipitation in northwestern Iran during the last half-century. Journal of Irrigation Sciences and Engineering (JISE), 59-73.
  • Mohammadi, Nabi., Sari Sarraf, Behrooz., Rostamzadeh, Hashem. (2023). Projection of precipitation using CMIP6 models until the end of the 21st century in northwest Iran. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10.22067/GEOEH.2022.76646.1223 
  • Naseri, Erfan., Massah Boani, Alireza., Saadi, Tawfiq, (2020), Evaluation of the efficiency of GCM models in estimating the average temperature of Alborz province during the statistical period2015-1985, Sixth Regional Climate Change Conference, Tehran.
  • Zareian, Mohammad Javad., Dehban, Hossein., Gohari, Alireza, (2022), Evaluation of the Accuracy of CMIP6 Models in Estimating the Temperature and Precipitation of Iran Based on a Network Analysis. Journal of Water and Irrigation Management, 12 (4), 783-797. DOI: http://doi.org/10.22059/jwim.2022.345975.1006
  • Akinsanola, A. A., Kooperman, G. J., Pendergrass, A. G., Hannah, W. M., & Reed, K. A. (2020). Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations. Environmental Research Letters.
  • Almazroui, M., Islam, M. N., Saeed, S., Saeed, F., & Ismail, M. (2020). Future Changes in Climate over the Arabian Peninsula based on CMIP6 Multimodel Simulations. Earth Systems and Environment, 1-20.
  • Almazroui, M., Saeed, F., Saeed, S., Islam, M. N., Ismail, M., Klutse, N. A. B., & Siddiqui, M. H. (2020). Projected change in temperature and precipitation over Africa from CMIP6. Earth Systems and Environment, 1-21.
  • Bosshard, T., Kotlarski, S., Ewen, T., & Schär, C. (2011). Spectral representation of the annual cycle in the climate change signal. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(9), 2777-2788.
  • Chadwick, R., Coppola, E., & Giorgi, F. (2010). Downscaling of GCM parameter outputs to RCM spatial scale using an artificial neural network. EGUGA, 2207.
  • Chen, H., Matsuhashi, K., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Honjo, K., & Gomi, K. (2020). Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan. Sustainability Science, 1-16.
  • Chen, C. A., Hsu, H. H., & Liang, H. C. Evaluation and Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 Model Performance in Simulating the Seasonal Extreme Precipitation in the Western North Pacific and East Asia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 100303.
  • Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., & Tebaldi, C. (2007). Linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 27(12), 1547-1578.
  • Frame, B., Lawrence, J., Ausseil, A. G., Reisinger, A., & Daigneault, A. (2018). Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national and local scenarios. Climate Risk Management, 21, 39-51.
  • Graham, L. P., Andréasson, J., & Carlsson, B. (2007). Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods–a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change, 81(1), 293-307.
  • Hussain F, Nabi Gh, Boota M (2015) Rainfall trend analysis by using the mann-kendall test & sen's slope estimates: a case study of district chakwal rain gauge, Barani area, northern Punjab province, Pakistan. Science International. 4: 3159-165.
  • https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/
  • Karim, R., Tan, G., Ayugi, B., Babaousmail, H., & Liu, F. (2020). Evaluation of Historical CMIP6 Model Simulations of Seasonal Mean Temperature over Pakistan during 1970–2014. Atmosphere, 11(9), 1005.
  • Kerkhoff, C., Künsch, H. R., & Schär, C. (2014). Assessment of bias assumptions for climate models. Journal of Climate, 27(17), 6799-6818.
  • Kim, Y. H., Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Sillmann, J., & Sandstad, M. (2020). Evaluation of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble for climate extreme indices. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100269.
  • Kocsis T, Kovács-Székely I, Anda A (2020) Homogeneity tests and non-parametric analyses of tendencies in precipitation time series in Keszthely, Western Hungary. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 139: 849-859.
  • Mishra, V., Bhatia, U., & Tiwari, A. D. (2020). Bias-corrected climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) for South Asia. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.12976.
  • Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., ... & Marotzke, J. (2018). A Higher‐resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1. 2‐HR). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10(7), 1383-1413.
  • O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., Vuuren, D. P. V., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., ... & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3461-3482.
  • Panda A, Sahu N (2019) Trend analysis of seasonal rainfall and temperature pattern in Kalahandi, Bolangir, and Koraput districts of Odisha, India. Atmospheric Science Letters (20): e932.
  • Pedde, S., Harrison, P. A., Holman, I. P., Powney, G. D., Lofts, S., Schmucki, R., ... & Bullock, J. M. (2020). Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of The Total Environment, 143172.
  • Shrestha, M., Acharya, S. C., & Shrestha, P. K. (2017). Bias correction of climate models for hydrological modeling–are simple methods still useful? Meteorological Applications, 24(3), 531-539.

 

  • Smitha, p. s., Narasimhan, B., Sudheer, K. P., Annamalai, H, 2017, An improved bias correction method of daily rainfall data using a sliding window technique for climate change impact assessment, Journal of Hydrology, S0022-1694(17)30764-3, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.010.
  • Sen PK (1968) Asymptotically efficient tests by the method of n rankings. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological). 30:312-317.
  • Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., & Ullrich, P. A. (2020). Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100268.
  • Teutschbein, C., & Seibert, J. (2012). Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. Journal of Hydrology, 456, 12-29.
  • Thapa P L. Climate Change and The Agriculture Crisis: Agroecology as a Solution. Published by: Focus on the Global South, India. 2015.
  • Udayashankara, T.H., Sadashiva Murthy, B.M., Madhukar, M, 2016, Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Pattern and Reservoir Level, Journal of Water Resource Engineering and Management, ISSN: 2349-4336(online), Volume 3, Issue 1.
  • Wehner, M., Gleckler, P., & Lee, J. (2020). Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in the CMIP6 models: Part 1, model evaluation. Weather and Climate Extremes, 30, 100283.