سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Crisis Management in Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (Makran Coast) With Emphasis on the Role of the Meteorological Organization مدیریت بحران در طوفان‌های حاره ای شمال اقیانوس هند (سواحل مکران) باتاکید بر نقش سازمان هواشناسی 1 20 246125 10.22034/jcr.2026.582355.1732 FA محمدرضا سالاری فنودی دکترای اقلیم شناسی، رئیس اداره هواشناسی دریایی چابهار 0000-0001-7877-7432 چکاوک خواجه امیری خالدی دکترای اقلیم شناسی، استادیار گروه اقیانوس‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم دریایی، دانشگاه دریانوردی و علوم دریایی چابهار. Journal Article 2026 05 19 Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean are among the natural hazards with high destructive power, which have undergone changes in frequency and intensity in recent decades under the influence of climate change. The Makran coast, as one of the strategic coastal areas of Iran, is significantly vulnerable to the consequences of these storms due to its specific climatic, geographical and social characteristics. The Makran coast, located in the northern Indian Ocean and adjacent to the Sea of Oman, is one of the strategic and at the same time vulnerable coastal areas of Iran that has been increasingly affected by natural hazards of climatic origin in recent decades. Among these hazards, tropical cyclones, as infrequent but highly destructive phenomena, play an important role in the emergence of human, economic and environmental crises. The increase in the frequency and intensity of these cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean basin, which has been attributed to global climate change and rising sea surface temperatures in many climate studies, has doubled the need for special attention to crisis management in this region.Disaster management, as a systematic process of planning, coordinating, and responding to natural hazards, includes the stages of prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, each of which plays an important role in reducing the negative consequences of disasters. One of the essential components in weather disaster management is national and regional meteorological organizations, which can increase the response capacity of other involved institutions by providing accurate forecasts and timely warnings. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) emphasizes that coordinated national and regional tropical cyclone forecasting and warning systems are essential to reduce losses and damages, such that these systems include meteorological data, forecasting models, and information networks (WMO, 2023).The aim of this study is to investigate the status of tropical cyclone crisis management on the Makran coast and analyze the challenges and capacities in the stages of prevention, preparedness, response and rehabilitation. It then presents a framework for crisis management in the face of tropical storms with an applied approach and analyzes the key role of the Meteorological Organization in forecasting, early warning, inter-agency coordination, and data-driven support. The present study is based on a review of strategic documents, crisis management experiences, and practical solutions in the form of a crisis management cycle including prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. The present study, with an analytical-applied approach, attempts to identify management and institutional gaps and explain the role of climatic and human factors in exacerbating or reducing the consequences of tropical storms. The results of this study can help to enhance the resilience of coastal communities, improve early warning systems, and streamline disaster management policies on the Makran coast, and provide a scientific basis for regional planning in the context of climate change. The results show that strengthening meteorological forecasting capacities, early warning systems, effective communication with response agencies and local communities, and joint inter-agency exercises will significantly reduce human and financial losses. This article provides actionable guidance for planners, disaster managers, and decision-makers to enhance the resilience of coastal communities by increasing the effectiveness of measures. The main innovation of this research lies in the integration of climate and management approaches to analyze tropical cyclones in the Makran coast. While many previous studies have focused solely on the meteorological aspects or physical damages of cyclones, this research examines the full cycle of disaster management in the context of climate change with a comprehensive view. Focusing on the Makran coast as a less studied region, simultaneously analyzing natural and human factors, and providing localized solutions for disaster management are other innovative aspects of this research. According to the research findings, the most important factor in reducing losses from tropical cyclones is strengthening the full cycle of disaster management with an emphasis on prevention and preparedness. Developing local early warning systems, improving coordination among responsible institutions, improving the resilience of critical infrastructure, and increasing the participation of local communities are among the key strategies recommended by this study. In summary, it can be concluded that moving from reactive crisis management to crisis management based on resilience and adaptation to climate change is the main condition for reducing the vulnerability of Makran coasts to tropical storms. The results of this research can be used as a scientific basis for regional planning and policy-making in the field of coastal natural hazard management and pave the way for further research in the future. . طوفان‌های حاره‌ای شمال اقیانوس هند از جمله مخاطرات طبیعی با قدرت تخریب بالا هستند که در دهه‌های اخیر، تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم، از نظر فراوانی و شدت دستخوش تغییر شده‌اند. سواحل مکران به‌عنوان یکی از نواحی ساحلی راهبردی ایران، به دلیل ویژگی‌های اقلیمی، جغرافیایی و اجتماعی خاص، در برابر پیامدهای این طوفان‌ها آسیب‌پذیری قابل توجهی دارد. هدف این پژوهش بررسی وضعیت مدیریت بحران طوفان‌های حاره‌ای در سواحل مکران و تحلیل چالش‌ها و ظرفیت‌های موجود در مراحل پیشگیری، آمادگی، پاسخ و بازتوانی است.در ادامه با رویکرد کاربردی، چارچوبی برای مدیریت بحران در مواجهه با طوفان‌های حاره‌ای ارائه می‌دهد و نقش کلیدی سازمان هواشناسی در پیش‌بینی، هشدار به‌موقع، هماهنگی بین‌سازمانی و پشتیبانی داده‌محور را تحلیل می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر بر مبنای بررسی اسناد راهبردی، تجربیات مدیریت بحران و راهکارهای عملی در قالب چرخه مدیریت بحران شامل پیشگیری، آماده‌باش، پاسخ و بازتوانی تدوین گردیده است. پژوهش حاضر با رویکردی تحلیلی–کاربردی تلاش می‌کند ضمن شناسایی خلأهای مدیریتی و نهادی، نقش عوامل اقلیمی و انسانی را در تشدید یا کاهش پیامدهای طوفان‌های حاره‌ای تبیین کند. نتایج این مطالعه می‌تواند به ارتقای تاب‌آوری جوامع ساحلی، بهبود نظام‌های هشدار سریع و کارآمدسازی سیاست‌های مدیریت بحران در سواحل مکران کمک کند و مبنایی علمی برای برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای در شرایط تغییر اقلیم فراهم آورد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تقویت ظرفیت‌های پیش‌بینی هواشناسی، سیستم‌های هشدار سریع، ارتباط مؤثر با نهادهای پاسخ‌گو و جامعه محلی و تمرین‌های مشترک بین‌سازمانی باعث کاهش چشمگیر خسارات جانی و مالی خواهد شد. این مقاله راهنمایی قابل‌اجرا برای برنامه‌ریزان، مدیران بحران و تصمیم‌گیران فراهم می‌آورد تا با افزایش اثربخشی اقدامات، تاب‌آوری جوامع ساحلی ارتقاء یابد.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246125_4b0ad57339957e134fc2b72d43b0bb73.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Examining the Impacts of Climate Change on Social Development with Emphasis on Environmental Hazards: A Systematic Review Based on the Social–Ecological Systems (SES) Framework بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه اجتماعی با تاکید بر مخاطرات محیطی: یک مرور سیستماتیک مبتنی بر چارچوب سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اکولوژیکی (SES) 21 36 246126 10.22034/jcr.2026.582924.1735 FA محمدرضا فرزانه استادیار، پژوهشکده محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار سازمان حفاظت از محیط زیست، تهران. فائزه بنی‌مصطفی عرب کارشناسی ارشد ریاضی مالی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران 0000-0001-7601-5733 Journal Article 2026 05 23 Introduction Climate change represents one of the most pressing global threats, profoundly altering natural patterns and exacerbating social vulnerabilities. Driven primarily by human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures reached a record 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, with accelerating trends since the 1970s at 0.20°C per decade. This has disrupted precipitation, increased extreme weather events like floods and droughts, and affected ecosystems, as evidenced by reduced Arctic Sea ice and rising sea levels at 4.1 mm per year from 2016 to 2025. These changes extend beyond environmental impacts, posing significant challenges to social development, including health, food security, livelihoods, and migration. Vulnerable groups in developing countries are disproportionately affected, with over 56% of climate-related litigation since 2020 occurring there. Social vulnerability indicators such as age, gender, ethnicity, income, and access to services amplify health impacts, while projections indicate temperature rises of 1.4–5.8°C by 2100, threatening water resources and agricultural productivity, particularly in regions like the Himalayas and Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change deepens economic inequalities, fosters migration (potentially displacing 62 million working-age individuals by 2100), and highlights the need for interdisciplinary approaches. Despite extensive research, comprehensive systematic reviews using socio-ecological systems (SES) frameworks are limited, creating a research gap. This study aims to systematically examine climate change's impacts on social development, emphasizing environmental hazards, through an SES lens to identify linkages, evidence from international cases, and future research needs. Materials and Methods This study employs a qualitative analytical-descriptive approach based on the SES framework by Ostrom, which facilitates structured analysis of complex socio-ecological interactions. The methodology is divided into three levels: (1) Explaining the classification method grounded in SES framework and international experiences, identifying systems and subsystems endogenously linked to climate change via qualitative content analysis of international documents; (2) Identifying international examples of climate-social development linkages in SES subsystems, with a focus on environmental hazards, through a systematic review of scientific articles, reports (e.g., IPCC, Copernicus), and case studies; (3) Direct and indirect analysis of linkages, where indirect analysis examines interactions between the "social development" subsystem and other SES subsystems, emphasizing social elements and environmental hazards, while direct analysis focuses on social development dimensions like vulnerability of groups (women, children), climate migration, inequality, and poverty, drawing on empirical evidence from credible sources. The SES framework structures analysis into three core systems: resource system (e.g., land use, and use change and forestry, coastal zones, environment, waste, water), actor system (e.g., energy, buildings, transport, industry, agriculture, health, tourism), and governance system (e.g., economy-wide, public sector, finance, rural, urban, and social development). Data sources include peer-reviewed journals, international reports (e.g., NOAA, World Bank, FAO), and studies from 2014–2025, ensuring a global, interdisciplinary perspective without geographic boundaries. Results and Discussion The analysis reveals multifaceted linkages between climate change and social development across SES subsystems, with environmental hazards acting as key mediators. In resource system, hazards like floods, droughts, and ecosystem degradation exacerbate social vulnerabilities: land use changes lead to forced rural-urban migration and inequality; coastal areas face salinity and ecosystem loss, reducing livelihoods and health; environmental degradation causes habitat fragmentation and service decline, impacting nature-dependent communities; waste mismanagement amplifies pollution and inequities; water scarcity from droughts and floods heightens access disparities. In actor system, hazards disrupt human activities: energy inequality worsens poverty; buildings suffer from heat islands, affecting housing equity; transport disruptions limit mobility; industrial pollution and transitions cause job losses; agriculture faces yield reductions, threatening food security; health sees increased heat-related deaths and diseases; tourism experiences biodiversity loss, pressuring local economies. In governance system, hazards induce economic shocks (e.g., inflation from temperature rises), strain public services, increase financial burdens, and widen urban-rural divides. Direct impacts on social development dimensions include: health (e.g., heatwaves causing mental health issues, intergenerational effects on children); livelihoods (droughts reducing agricultural resilience); food/water security (disrupted production leading to malnutrition); migration (displacement from sea-level rise); gender inequality (women's increased care burdens); poverty (regressive effects on low-income groups); human security (resource conflicts); and governance (limited participation and indigenous knowledge integration). Indirect effects highlight subsystem interactions, such as resource degradation amplifying actor vulnerabilities and governance failures. Discussions emphasize the need for ecosystem-based adaptations, low-carbon innovations, gender-sensitive policies, and enhanced institutional capacity to build social resilience, addressing gaps in long-term modeling and local knowledge integration. Conclusion Climate change profoundly undermines social development through environmental hazards, necessitating integrated SES-based strategies for mitigation and adaptation. By highlighting direct and indirect impacts, this study underscores the urgency of equitable policies, interdisciplinary research, and global cooperation to foster sustainable social progress amid escalating climate risks. تغییر اقلیم به عنوان یکی از جدی‌ترین تهدیدهای جهانی، الگوهای طبیعی زمین را دگرگون کرده و اثرات عمیقی بر توسعه اجتماعی بر جای می‌گذارد. این پدیده، مخاطرات محیطی نظیر سیلاب‌های شدید، خشکسالی‌های طولانی، امواج گرما، تخریب اکوسیستم‌ها و افزایش سطح دریا را تشدید می‌کند که به نوبه خود، نابرابری‌های اجتماعی، سلامت عمومی، معیشت، امنیت غذایی و آب و مهاجرت اجباری را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد. گروه‌های آسیب‌پذیر، به ویژه در کشورهای در حال توسعه، بیشترین بار این تغییرات را تحمل می‌کنند و شاخص‌هایی مانند سن، جنسیت، درآمد و دسترسی به خدمات، موجب افزایش آسیب‌پذیری می‌شوند. این مطالعه با رویکرد تحلیلی-توصیفی و مبتنی بر چارچوب سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اکولوژیکی (SES) استروم، اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه اجتماعی را با تمرکز بر مخاطرات محیطی بررسی می‌کند. روش‌شناسی در سه سطح شامل تبیین طبقه‌بندی بر پایه SES ؛ شناسایی مصادیق جهانی از طریق مرور منابع علمی معتبر و تحلیل ارتباطات غیرمستقیم (تعامل توسعه اجتماعی با سایر زیرسیستم‌ها) و مستقیم (ابعاد توسعه اجتماعی مانند سلامت، مهاجرت و عدالت اقلیمی) است نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تغییر اقلیم در سیستم‌های منابع، بازیگران و حکمرانی، با تشدید مخاطرات محیطی، منجر به کاهش تاب‌آوری اجتماعی، تعمیق نابرابری‌ها و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری گروه‌های خاص مانند زنان، کودکان و جوامع کم‌درآمد می‌شود. به طور خاص، این تغییرات، سلامت را با افزایش مرگ‌ومیر و اختلالات روانی تهدید می‌کند، معیشت را با کاهش تولید کشاورزی مختل می‌سازد، امنیت غذا و آب را ناپایدار کرده، مهاجرت اجباری را افزایش می‌دهد، نابرابری جنسیتی را تشدید می‌کند، فقر را بازتولید می‌نماید، امنیت انسانی را به خطر می‌اندازد و حکمرانی را با ضعف مشارکت محدود می‌سازد. در نهایت، یافته‌ها بر ضرورت رویکردهای میان‌رشته‌ای نوآورانه، سیاست‌های سازگاری حساس به جنسیت و عدالت اجتماعی، تقویت حکمرانی مشارکتی با ادغام دانش محلی، و بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های کم‌کربن برای کاهش آسیب‌ها و پیشبرد توسعه پایدار تاکید دارد.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246126_8db6d3c7964a35a3001d8984f18bcccd.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 The Role of Agrometeorological Services in Reducing Losses and Enhancing Productivity of Rice Farmers in Northern Iran نقش خدمات هواشناسی کشاورزی در کاهش خسارات و افزایش بهره‌وری کشاورزان برنج‌کار شمال ایران 37 51 246124 10.22034/jcr.2026.583190.1737 FA مجید حبیبی نوخندان دانشیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو. رقیه معصوم پور امیرآبادی کارشناس پژوهشی علم اطلاعات، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو. 0009-0003-9583-8788 Journal Article 2026 05 25 Introduction Agriculture, particularly rice cultivation in northern Iran (Gilan and Mazandaran provinces), is highly vulnerable to weather fluctuations and climate change. Despite the availability of meteorological data and warning systems such as the "TAHAK" platform, rice farmers continue to suffer substantial economic losses annually. Reports from the Agricultural Insurance Fund (2018) indicate that over 63,000 rice farmers in Gilan province alone received compensation for damages caused by cold spells and heavy rains during the 2016 crop year. This paradox—abundant meteorological information yet persistent high losses—highlights a critical gap: the disconnect between data production and practical, actionable use by farmers. Previous studies have identified barriers such as farmers' misunderstanding of forecasts, lack of spatial relevance, weak institutional support, and limited access to extension services (Sharifzadeh et al., 2010; Forozani et al., 2018). However, little attention has been paid to the lived experiences of leading farmers who have successfully integrated weather forecasts into their daily decision-making. This study aims to fill that gap by exploring how agrometeorological services and weather forecasts contribute to loss reduction and productivity enhancement among rice farmers in northern Iran. Methodology This qualitative study employed a grounded theory approach to capture the depth and complexity of farmers' lived experiences. Participants were 15 leading rice farmers from Gilan and Mazandaran provinces, selected through purposive sampling. Inclusion criteria included: at least 10 years of practical farming experience, familiarity with weather forecasts, registration in the TAHAK system, and willingness to participate in in-depth interviews. Snowball sampling was used to complete the participant pool. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews lasting 45–60 minutes. Interviews were conducted in the farmers' fields, homes, or local mosques, creating a comfortable environment for open dialogue. The interview guide focused on: access to meteorological services, use of weather information in farming decisions, impact on loss reduction and productivity, and factors enabling effective use of forecasts. Data analysis followed Strauss and Corbin's three-stage coding process (open, axial, selective) using MAXQDA software. Trustworthiness was ensured through member checking, peer review, and triangulation of sources (interviews, field observations, meteorological documents). Ethical considerations included informed consent, confidentiality, and the right to withdraw. Findings The analysis yielded 225 coded references organized into eight thematic categories. The most frequent code (53 references, 25.2%) was "optimization of operation timing," indicating that the primary practical function of weather forecasts is helping farmers schedule plowing, seeding, fertilizing, weeding, and harvesting. "Trust in meteorological data" followed with 47 references (22.4%), revealing that trust is not an abstract attitude but emerges from three concrete components: spatial accuracy, actionability, and timeliness. A significant finding was the "temporal-spatial and content gap" (32 references, 15.2%), with farmers explicitly stating that weekly forecasts are ineffective and that they need 24–72 hour forecasts with village or farm-level resolution. The "triple knowledge integration" pattern (28 references, 13.3%) showed that successful farmers do not replace indigenous knowledge with scientific data; rather, they integrate three knowledge streams: formal scientific knowledge (weather data, agronomic principles), experiential indigenous knowledge (cloud and wind signs, animal behavior), and situational monitoring knowledge (field thermometers, record-keeping). Seven structural barriers were identified, totaling 82 references: weak dissemination of TAHAK services (21 references), information being difficult to understand (18), lack of credibility due to non-localized forecasts (32), extension agents' unfamiliarity with farmers' real needs (18), weak trust due to occasional inaccurate forecasts (11), impractical information (11), and lack of timely access (15). Discussion The findings reveal a paradigm shift from reactive to proactive risk management. Farmers who received direct, ongoing training moved from "reacting to events" to "anticipating and preventing based on data." This aligns with global studies (WMO, 2024; Boon et al., 2022) but adds a critical insight: the temporal-spatial mismatch between weekly, station-based forecasts and farmers' need for daily, field-level predictions. Trust emerged as a three-layered construct: instrumental trust (based on repeated accuracy), relational trust (built through direct interaction with a trusted expert), and systemic trust (confidence in institutions). This multi-layered understanding goes beyond previous conceptualizations of trust as a simple psychological variable. The triple knowledge integration pattern challenges the false dichotomy between "traditional" and "modern" knowledge. Farmers do not choose one over the other; they create a dialectical synthesis that leverages the strengths of both. This finding has profound implications for extension programs, which often dismiss indigenous knowledge as folklore. Based on these findings, a four-layer model is proposed: 1. Information layer: Accurate, localized (village/farm level), timely (24–72 hour), and actionable forecasts (translated into specific agronomic recommendations). 2. Trust and interaction layer: Direct communication with a trusted local expert via simple, low-cost channels (phone calls, text messages in local dialect). 3. Education and empowerment layer: Practical, field-based training on interpreting microclimate, understanding cloud and wind patterns, managing diseases based on humidity forecasts, and integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific data. 4. Institutional and support layer: Policy integration across the Meteorological Organization, Ministry of Agriculture, Insurance Fund, and extension services; defining "agricultural meteorological liaisons" in each extension center; linking weather data to crop insurance incentives. Conclusion Agrometeorological services in northern Iran can achieve maximum effectiveness in reducing losses and enhancing productivity when designed not as simple "weather news" but as a "contextual decision support system." The four-layer model provides a practical roadmap for achieving this transformation. As one participating farmer stated: "Meteorology doesn't just tell me if it will rain tomorrow; it tells me when to plant, when to spray, when to harvest—so I avoid losses and harvest better rice. That's what makes a smart farmer." کشاورزی، به‌ویژه کشت برنج در شمال ایران، به دلیل وابستگی شدید به شرایط جوی و تغییرات اقلیمی، همواره با مخاطرات ناشی از نوسانات جوی و رخدادهای حدی مواجه است که خسارات اقتصادی قابل‌توجه و کاهش بهره‌وری را در پی دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی نقش خدمات هواشناسی کشاورزی و پیش‌بینی‌های جوی در کاهش خسارت و بهبود تصمیم‌گیری برنج‌کاران استان‌های گیلان و مازندران انجام شد. روش پژوهش کیفی و مبتنی بر نظریه زمینه‌ای بود. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۱۵ کشاورز پیشرو گردآوری و تحلیل شد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد دسترسی به داده‌های دقیق، منطقه‌ای و به‌روز، همراه با آموزش عملی و تعامل مستقیم با متخصصان هواشناسی، زمان‌بندی عملیات شخم، خیساندن بذر، وجین، کوددهی و برداشت را بهینه کرده و ریسک خسارت را کاهش می‌دهد. اعتماد به داده‌ها و تلفیق تجربه شخصی با آموزش تخصصی، چارچوب تصمیم‌گیری علمی و عملیاتی ایجاد کرده و کیفیت و بهره‌وری محصول را افزایش می‌دهد. پیش‌بینی‌های جوی همچنین در مدیریت آفات و بیماری‌ها نقش مؤثری دارند و با بهینه‌سازی زمان سمپاشی و کوددهی، هزینه‌ها و اثرات زیست‌محیطی کاسته می‌شود. با این حال، محدودیت‌هایی نظیر دسترسی ناکافی مراکز ترویج، وابستگی خدمات به افراد خاص و موانع فناورانه شناسایی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد خدمات هواشناسی کشاورزی فراتر از پیش‌بینی جوی عمل کرده و با ترکیب داده‌های دقیق، اعتماد و آموزش، به ابزاری راهبردی در مدیریت ریسک و افزایش بهره‌وری تبدیل می‌شود. مدل چهارلایه پیشنهادی (لایه اطلاعاتی، اعتماد و تعامل، آموزش و توانمندسازی، و لایه نهادی و پشتیبانی) مسیر استفاده مؤثر، پایدار و عملیاتی از این خدمات را برای برنج‌کاران شمال ایران فراهم می‌آورد.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246124_0aabaab7bbd3bece6b42bb90cc9460e1.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Feasibility Study for Cloud Seeding Operations for Water Enhancement in Iran's River Basins بررسی و امکان سنجی استفاده از فناوری بارورسازی ابرها برای استحصال آب در حوضه های آبریز ایران 53 71 246127 10.22034/jcr.2026.584199.1738 FA خانم دکتر سهیلا جوانمرد عضو هیات علمی پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو 0000-0002-9598-3075 مجید حبیبی نوخندان عضو هیئت علمی پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو 0000-0003-0912-0052 حمیده دالایی دکترای اقلیم شناسی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور Journal Article 2026 05 31 Feasibility Assessment of Cloud Seeding Technology for Water Enhancement in Iran’s Watersheds Introduction Water scarcity has become one of the most critical environmental and socio-economic challenges in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, particularly in Iran. Recurrent droughts, declining precipitation trends, and increasing pressure on conventional water resources have intensified the need for alternative approaches to water resource management. Cloud seeding, as one of the most widely studied weather modification techniques, has been employed in several countries to enhance precipitation and improve water availability. However, the success of cloud seeding operations strongly depends on regional climatic conditions, cloud microphysical characteristics, and atmospheric dynamics. Due to the diverse climatic regimes and physiographic conditions across Iran, a comprehensive assessment of cloud seeding potential is required before implementing operational programs. The present study aims to evaluate the feasibility of cloud seeding for water enhancement in the thirty major watersheds of Iran by identifying suitable spatial and temporal windows and determining watershed priorities based on climatological and cloud microphysical indicators. Materials and Methods The methodology was developed based on the guidelines of the World Meteorological Organization’s Precipitation Enhancement Project (WMO-PEP No. 3) and adapted to the climatic conditions of Iran. Long-term meteorological observations from synoptic, climatological, and rain-gauge stations covering the period 1981–2010 were utilized. In addition, gridded Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.5° were employed to estimate precipitable water and cloud liquid water content. Nine key indicators influencing cloud seeding potential were selected and objectively scored, including: (1) terrain homogeneity, (2) mean monthly precipitation, (3) precipitation regime, (4) ratio of solid precipitation to total precipitation, (5) frequency of low-level clouds, (6) cloudiness percentage, (7) precipitable water, (8) frequency of convective clouds (Cumulus and Cumulonimbus types 2 and 3), and (9) cloud liquid water content (LWC). Each indicator was assigned a weighting factor according to its relative importance in cloud seeding effectiveness. Spatial analyses were conducted using GIS techniques, and final scores were calculated for each watershed on a monthly basis. The resulting values were used to classify and rank watersheds according to their cloud seeding suitability. Results and Discussion The results reveal substantial spatial and seasonal variability in cloud seeding potential across Iran. Northern and northwestern watersheds exhibited the highest suitability, particularly during the cold season when frontal systems dominate atmospheric circulation. The Lake Urmia and Aras watersheds consistently achieved the highest scores due to favorable precipitation regimes, higher cloud occurrence, significant proportions of solid precipitation, and elevated cloud liquid water content. The Caspian Sea watersheds, including Talesh, Gorgan, Haraz, and Sefidrud, also demonstrated considerable cloud seeding potential, especially during late spring and summer, owing to persistent moisture supply from the Caspian Sea and orographic lifting processes. In contrast, central and southern watersheds generally showed lower suitability because of limited atmospheric moisture, reduced cloud occurrence, and unfavorable cloud microphysical conditions. Monthly prioritization indicated that Lake Urmia and Namak Lake watersheds were among the most favorable regions during winter, while Talesh, Gorgan, and Haraz watersheds exhibited higher suitability during summer and early autumn. The findings are consistent with international studies conducted in China, Australia, and India, which emphasize the effectiveness of cloud seeding in mountainous regions influenced by frontal weather systems. The analysis also highlights that cloud seeding success depends not only on cloud presence but also on cloud microphysical properties and atmospheric moisture availability. Conclusion This study provides a comprehensive climatological and microphysical assessment of cloud seeding feasibility across Iran’s thirty major watersheds. The results indicate that the northwestern, western, and northern regions of Iran possess the highest potential for precipitation enhancement, particularly during the cold season. Among the evaluated watersheds, Lake Urmia, Aras, Talesh, Gorgan, Haraz, and Sefidrud emerged as the most promising candidates for operational cloud seeding programs. The findings suggest that cloud seeding can serve as a complementary tool for water resource management in Iran, provided that seeding strategies are carefully adapted to the specific cloud microphysical characteristics and climatic conditions of each watershed. Nevertheless, successful implementation requires real-time atmospheric monitoring, numerical weather prediction support, and rigorous operational evaluation. Future studies should integrate high-resolution atmospheric modeling, radar observations, and economic assessments to further quantify the effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio of cloud seeding operations under changing climatic conditions. با توجه به بحران کم‌آبی و کاهش ریزش‌های جوی در ایران، هدف از این مقاله امکان‌سنجی عملیاتی بارورسازی ابرها جهت استحصال آب در حوضه‌های آبریز ۳۰‌ گانه کشور است. این مقاله که برگرفته از طرح ملی موسسه تحقیقات آب می‌باشد، به دنبال شناسایی حوضه‌های دارای اولویت و تعیین راهبردهای خردفیزیکی متناسب با هر اقلیم است. به منظور تعیین مکان و زمان مناسب بارورسازی ابرها، داده‌های بلندمدت هواشناسی، تصاویر ماهواره‌ای و ویژگی‌های ترمودینامیکی جو در تمامی حوضه‌های آبریز ایران طی دوره آماری 30 ساله (2010-1981) مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار گرفت. پتانسیل بارورسازی بر اساس شاخص‌هایی نظیر درجه همگنی، میانگین جمع بارش ماهانه، رژیم بارشی، نسبت بارش جامد به کل بارش، درصد رخداد ابرهای تراز پائین، ابرناکی، آب بارش‌شو ، درصد رخداد ابرهای کومه‌ای تراز پائین نوع 2 و 3 و محتوای آب مایع ابر(LWC ) بر اساس مستنداتی چون PEP شماره 3 انتشارات WMO و بومی‌سازی آن با توجه به اقلیم‌های غالب کشور، محاسبه شده است. نتایج نشان داد که حوضه‌های آبریز شمالی و غربی (به‌ویژه دریاچه ارومیه و ارس) در فصول سرد سال به دلیل ساختار سیستم‌های جبهه‌ای، بالاترین پتانسیل را برای بارورسازی ابرها دارا هستند. در مقابل، حوضه‌های مرکزی و جنوبی با چالش‌های خردفیزیکی و محدودیت پنجره‌های عملیاتی مواجه‌اند. مقایسه نتایج با پژوهش‌های جهانی (مانند مطالعات در چین و استرالیا) نشان‌دهنده انطباق الگوهای بارش‌زایی در حوضه‌های کوهستانی ایران با سیستم‌های مشابه در عرض‌های جغرافیایی میانه است. همچنین بارورسازی ابرها می‌تواند به عنوان یک ابزار کمکی در مدیریت منابع آب ایران نقش ایفا کند، مشروط بر اینکه انتخاب عامل بارورکننده و زمان عملیات دقیقاً منطبق بر ویژگی‌های خردفیزیکی هر حوضه باشد.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246127_4f91b146f2e5b69560f3eb62897c5b5a.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Assessment of Pistachio Cultivars' Climate Potential Spatial Distribution in Khorasan Razavi Province Based on Chilling Requirement تحلیل فضایی و بررسی پتانسیل اقلیمی پراکنش مکانی ارقام پسته در استان خراسان رضوی بر مبنای فاکتور نیاز سرمایی 73 84 246128 10.22034/jcr.2026.585280.1739 FA سعیده کوزه گران دکترای هواشناسی کشاورزی، پژوهشگر، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران 0000-0002-2369-766X ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی دکترای هواشناسی کشاورزی، استادیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران 0000-0002-5603-765X جواد رسولی دکترای اگرواکولوژی، گروه تحقیقات هواشناسی کاربردی، مشهد یعقوب نیازی کارشناس پژوهشی، پژوهشکده هواشناسی آب و کشاورزی، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، ایلام یاشار فلامرزی دکترای مهندسی منابع آب، استادیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران Journal Article 2026 06 06 Pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) is one of Iran's most significant horticultural and economic products, with high strategic value in non-oil exports. Khorasan Razavi province, following Kerman, ranks second in both cultivation area and production of dry pistachios in the country. However, global climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, poses a significant threat to the sustainability of pistachio cultivation. One of the most critical factors for the successful growth and fruiting of pistachio trees is the fulfillment of their chilling requirements during the winter dormancy period. Insufficient winter chill can lead to a cascade of physiological problems, including delayed and irregular flowering, asynchronous bloom between male and female cultivars, reduced fruit set, and ultimately, substantial yield losses. Different pistachio cultivars have unique chilling needs, ranging from 600 to 1200 hours below 7.2°C. Therefore, selecting the appropriate variety based on the specific climatic conditions of a region is essential for sustainable and profitable production. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive spatial analysis to produce and evaluate a climatic suitability map for pistachio cultivation in Khorasan Razavi province. By leveraging high-resolution reanalysis data and multiple chilling models, this research provides a crucial agrometeorological tool for regional planning and farm-level decision-making. - Materials and methods This study focuses on Khorasan Razavi province, located in northeastern Iran, which exhibits diverse climatic conditions from semi-arid to cold mountainous regions. To overcome the limitations of sparse and often incomplete meteorological station data, this research utilized high-resolution (0.1° x 0.1°, ~9 km) hourly gridded temperature data from the ERA5-Land reanalysis product, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The data covers a 31-year statistical period from 1991 to 2021. The chilling accumulation for pistachio was calculated for the critical dormancy period from November 1st to February 4th. Three distinct and widely used models were employed to estimate chilling accumulation: (1) the Chilling Hours (CH) model, which counts hours with temperatures between 0 and 7.2°C; (2) the Utah model, which assigns different weights to various temperature ranges, including negative effects for warm temperatures; and (3) the Dynamic model, which conceptualizes chill accumulation as a two-step process and is considered more suitable for warmer climates. The spatial distribution of chilling accumulation for each model was mapped across the province. Furthermore, long-term trends in chilling accumulation over the 31-year period were analyzed using the non-parametric Theil-Sen's slope estimator, with trend significance assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. Finally, to provide a risk assessment framework, probability maps were generated to identify areas with different likelihoods (75% and 90%) of meeting the chilling requirements for various pistachio cultivars. - Results and discussion The analysis of chilling requirement patterns in the province revealed significant spatial and temporal variability. Based on the Chilling Hours (CH) model, most parts of the province, with the exception of some limited northwestern areas, are capable of satisfying the chilling requirements for pistachio. A majority of locations demonstrated the ability to provide over 800 chilling hours, suitable for commercial cultivars like 'Ahmad Aghaei' and 'Owhadi'. The spatial distribution of probabilistic values showed that areas with a 75% probability of meeting high chilling requirements (1000 to 1200 hours) are concentrated in the western and southern parts of the province, such as Bardaskan and Khalilabad counties, making them highly suitable for the 'Akbari' cultivar. With a 90% probability, large areas of the province have the potential to meet chilling needs in the 800-1000 hours range, indicating low-risk zones for investment. The trend analysis indicated a statistically significant increasing trend in chilling hours in the eastern and western parts and some central areas of the province, with an annual increase of about 2 to 6 hours. This suggests an improvement in climatic suitability for higher-chill cultivars in these regions. Analyses based on the Utah model provided a more conservative estimate, highlighting the southern parts of the province as having the most effective chilling accumulation due to fewer mid-winter warm spells. The Dynamic model results, showing that most regions received more than 50 chill portions, confirmed the general suitability of the province for breaking dormancy. The convergence of results from all three models strengthens the validity of identifying the southern and western plains as prime locations for pistachio cultivation. - Conclusion This research provides a detailed and robust assessment of the climatic suitability for pistachio cultivation in Khorasan Razavi province. The findings indicate that large parts of the province, particularly the southern and western regions, possess a high and reliable potential for pistachio cultivation, accommodating a range of cultivars from moderate to high chilling needs. The identified increasing trend in chilling hours in several regions suggests a potential for future expansion of suitable cultivation zones. The generated probability maps serve as a valuable risk management tool for stakeholders. The study highlights the critical importance of using high-resolution climate data and multiple agro-climatic models for accurate zoning and strategic planning. The results can guide policymakers in promoting sustainable agricultural development, assist farmers in selecting appropriate cultivars to minimize risk and maximize yield, and inform investment decisions in the agricultural sector. Future research should focus on integrating these findings with soil and water availability data and employing climate change projection models to assess long-term viability. Keywords: Climatic Suitability, Chilling Requirement, Probabilistic Analysis, Reanalysis Data, Pistachio, Khorasan Razavi. استان خراسان رضوی به عنوان دومین قطب تولید پسته در ایران، با چالش‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی و تأمین نیاز سرمایی این محصول استراتژیک روبرو است. نیاز سرمایی، به عنوان یکی از کلیدی‌ترین عوامل اگروکلیماتیک، موفقیت یا شکست باغات پسته را تعیین می‌کند. در این پژوهش، با هدف ارزیابی دقیق تناسب اقلیمی و شناسایی مناطق مستعد کشت پسته، از داده‌های دمای بازتحلیل ERA5-Land با قدرت تفکیک مکانی بالا برای دوره آماری ۳۱ ساله (۱۹۹۱-۲۰۲۱) استفاده شد. نیاز سرمایی استان بر اساس سه مدل رایج شامل مدل ساعات سرمایی(CH)، مدل یوتا و مدل دینامیک محاسبه و پهنه‌بندی گردید. نتایج حاصل از مدلCH نشان داد که به جز بخش‌های محدودی از شمال غرب استان، سایر مناطق قابلیت تأمین نیاز سرمایی ارقام مختلف پسته را دارند و اغلب نقاط توانایی تأمین بیش از ۸۰۰ ساعت سرمایی را در سال‌های مختلف داشته‌اند. تحلیل روند با استفاده از برآوردگر شیب سن، افزایش سالانه ۲ تا ۶ ساعت در مجموع ساعات نیاز سرمایی را در پهنه‌هایی از نواحی شرقی و غربی استان نشان داد که بیانگر بهبود شرایط برای ارقام با نیاز سرمایی بالاتر است. نقشه‌های احتمالاتی نیز مشخص کرد که پهنه‌های وسیعی از استان، به‌ویژه در مناطق غربی و جنوبی (مانند شهرستان‌های بردسکن و خلیل‌آباد)، با احتمال بالا (۷۵٪ و ۹۰٪) پتانسیل تأمین نیاز سرمایی ارقام تجاری و پرنیاز مانند اکبری را دارا می‌باشند. مقایسه مدل‌ها نشان داد که هر سه مدل در شناسایی مناطق مستعد همگرایی دارند، اما مدل یوتا به دلیل در نظر گرفتن اثرات منفی دماهای بالا، ارزیابی محافظه‌کارانه‌تری ارائه می‌دهد. این اطلاعات می‌تواند به عنوان ابزاری کارآمد و مبنایی علمی برای سیاست‌گذاری‌های کلان در بخش کشاورزی، مدیریت ریسک و برنامه‌ریزی در جهت توسعه پایدار و اقتصادی باغات پسته در استان مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246128_a308307a6b0845ae13719749ade9e7e1.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Spatial Distribution and Prioritization of Atmospheric Hazards in Tehran Province Based on Station Data (Period 2007–2023) توزیع مکانی و اولویت‌بندی مخاطرات جوی در استان تهران بر اساس داده‌های ایستگاهی (دوره ۲۰۰۷-۲۰۲۳) 85 98 246130 10.22034/jcr.2026.585469.1741 FA منصوره کوهی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم، مشهد ابراهیم اسدی اسکویی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم، مشهد 0000-0002-5603-765X شراره ملبوسی کارشناس پژوهشی، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم، مشهد. راضیه پهلوان دکترای هواشناسی، پژوهشکده هواشناسی، تهران. فاطمه عباسی کارشناس پژوهشی، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم، مشهد. Journal Article 2026 06 07 Over the past five decades, the world has experienced, on average, one weather-, hydrological-, or climate-related disaster per day. During this period, an average of 115 fatalities per day and economic losses exceeding USD 202 million per day have been reported. More than 91% of disaster-related deaths have occurred in developing countries (CRED, 2018). This study examines and analyzes atmospheric hazards in Tehran Province, including dust storms, hail, heavy snow, thunderstorms, fog, and severe snow blizzards, based on data from seven synoptic stations (Mehrabad, Shemiranat, Varamin, Firuzkuh, Shahriar, Imam Khomeini, and Abali) during the period 2007-2023. The primary objective of this study is to conduct a preliminary screening of atmospheric hazards and identify the dominant types of atmospheric hazards in Tehran Province, with a particular emphasis on the "hazard" component of the risk framework. This assessment is based on weather codes recorded at meteorological stations and aims to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of hazard occurrence frequencies across the province. The results of this study have significant applications in regional planning and early warning system management. By producing spatial distribution maps of atmospheric hazards, a more comprehensive understanding of the nature and distribution of these phenomena in Tehran Province can be achieved. Furthermore, the findings contribute to the development of a more accurate characterization of the conditions under which such hazards occur and their associated impacts. 1-Material and Methods Study Area Tehran Province, which spans an area of approximately 18,814 km², is located between 34° and 36.5° north latitude and 50° and 53° east longitude. This province is bordered to the north by Mazandaran Province, to the south by Qom Province, to the southwest by Markazi Province, to the west by Alborz Province, and to the east by Semnan Province. The capital of this province is the city of Tehran, and other significant cities include Islamshahr, Damavand, Shahr-e Rey, Kahrizak, and Varamin. Although Tehran Province covers only 0.78% of Iran's total area, it accommodates 16% of the country's population. It is the most populous province in Iran, with a population of 14,033,400 according to 2021 statistical data, of which 13,261,600 reside in urban areas and 771,800 in rural areas. Based on the 2018 United Nations estimate, Tehran ranks as the thirty-fourth most populous city in the world and the most populous city in Western Asia. The metropolis of Tehran is also the second most populous city in the Middle East. In terms of natural topography, Tehran is divided into two regions: the plain and the foothills of the Alborz Mountains, with altitudes ranging from 900 to 1,800 meters above sea level . The northern part of this province has a mountainous climate, while the southern part has a desert climate. In this study, observational data obtained from synoptic meteorological stations operated by the national meteorological organization were used. To ensure data consistency and adequate spatial coverage, stations with relatively continuous records during the 2007–2023 study period were selected. Ultimately, seven principal synoptic stations, including Mehrabad, Shemiranat, Varamin, Firuzkuh, Shahriar, Imam Khomeini International Airport, and Abali, were chosen as reference stations for analyzing the spatial distribution of atmospheric hazards across the study counties. Atmospheric hazards were identified and classified according to the present and past weather codes recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in WMO Manual No. 306. Based on these codes, six major atmospheric hazard categories were examined in this study: Dust storms (codes 30–35) Hail events (codes 27, 87–90, and 93–99) Heavy snowfall (codes 73–75) Thunderstorms (codes 92–99) Fog (codes 40–49) Severe snowstorms/blizzards (codes 37 and 39) To avoid overestimation of event frequency, each hazard was defined on a hazard-day basis. Accordingly, regardless of the number of observations or reports recorded within a given day, that day was counted as a single hazardous event occurrence. Results The spatial distribution analysis of hazards revealed high frequencies in the northern and northeastern mountainous regions of the province (such as Abali and Firuzkuh), where thunderstorms (with a maximum of 141 cases in Damavand) and heavy snow (202 cases in Damavand) are predominant. In contrast, southern and plain areas (such as Imam Khomeini and Varamin) are more affected by dust storms (7 cases in Imam Khomeini) and fog. Hazard prioritization was conducted based on normalized frequencies, indicating that thunderstorms are the top priority in northern counties (Shemiranat, Tehran, and Firuzkuh), while dust storms are the primary concern in southern regions (Rey, Shahriar, and Varamin). This research demonstrates the impact of topography and geographical location on the spatial distribution of atmospheric hazards in Tehran Province. Therefore, it is recommended that risk management planning be carried out based on these patterns. در طول نیم‌قرن گذشته، به‌طور متوسط، جهان روزانه شاهد یک حادثه مرتبط با تغییرات جوی، آب‌شناسی و اقلیمی بوده‌ است. همچنین، به‌طور متوسط،‌ روزانه ۱۱۵ نفر جان باخته و میزان خسارات بالغ ‌بر ۲۰۲ میلیون دلار در هر روز ارزیابی شده است که بیش از ۹۱ درصد مرگ‌ومیرهای مرتبط با حوادث و بلایای طبیعی در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه رخ داده است . در این پژوهش به بررسی و تحلیل مخاطرات جوی استان تهران، شامل گردوخاک، تگرگ، برف سنگین، توفان تندری، مه و کولاک شدید برف، بر اساس 7 ایستگاه همدید (مهرآباد، شمیرانات، ورامین، فیروزکوه، شهریار، امام خمینی و آبعلی) طی دوره ۲۰۰۷-۲۰۲۳ پرداخته شد. بررسی توزیع مکانی مخاطرات نشان داد مخاطرات در مناطق کوهستانی شمالی و شمال شرقی استان (مانند آبعلی و فیروزکوه) دارای فراوانی بالای هستند. در این مناطق، توفان تندری (با حداکثر ۱۴۱ مورد در دماوند) و برف سنگین (۲۰۲ مورد در دماوند) غالب هستند. در مقابل، نواحی جنوبی و دشتی (مانند امام خمینی و ورامین) بیشتر تحت تأثیر گردوخاک (۷ مورد در امام خمینی) و مه قرار دارند. اولویت‌بندی مخاطرات بر اساس نرمال‌سازی فراوانی انجام شد و نشان داد که توفان تندری اولویت اول در شهرستان‌های شمالی (شمیرانات، تهران و فیروزکوه) و گردوخاک در مناطق جنوبی (ری، شهریار و ورامین) است. این پژوهش تأثیر توپوگرافی و موقعیت جغرافیایی را بر توزیع مکانی مخاطرات جوی در سطح استان تهران نشان داد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود که برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت ریسک بر اساس این الگوها انجام شود.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_246130_4bd0c59cc7944bd16fc806087c070cd8.pdf

سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 64 2026 02 20 Analysis of the Concept of Climate Justice from the Perspective of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) تحلیل مفهوم عدالت اقلیمی از منظر گزارش ششم هیات بین الدولی تغییر اقلیم 110 99 248597 10.22034/jcr.2026.586585.1744 FA کبری لندی دانش آموخته مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهرکرد، چهارمحال و بختیاری معصومه فخری پژوهشگر گروه اقتصاد محیط زیست موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی ،اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران. محمدرضا فرزانه استادیار، پژوهشکده محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار سازمان حفاظت از محیط زیست، تهران. Journal Article 2026 06 13 Abstract 1. Introduction and Problem Statement Climate change is widely recognized as one of the most profound and multifaceted challenges of the contemporary era. While its origins and primary impacts are often framed through environmental and geophysical lenses, its consequences are deeply embedded within, and exacerbated by, existing social, economic, and political inequalities. The crisis is not an exogenous phenomenon detached from human society; rather, it is intrinsically linked to structural imbalances that determine who suffers most from climatic shifts and who possesses the resources to adapt. Recognizing the gravity of these intersections, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has increasingly elevated the concept of "Climate Justice" within its recent assessment reports. This conceptual shift marks a critical transition from purely technical or scientific discourse toward a more holistic, normative, and socio-political understanding of the climate crisis. However, despite this increased focus, there remains a critical need to systematically examine how these reports translate the abstract ideals of justice into specific policy frameworks. This study seeks to illustrate the various dimensions of climate justice within the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to identify the substantive, consequential aspects of the crisis that often remain overlooked. 2. Research Significance The urgency of this research stems from the fact that policy responses are often conditioned by the underlying conceptual framing of the problem. If climate change is restricted to purely technical or environmental aspects, the resulting policy interventions are often insufficient, failing to account for the social, structural, and historical contexts that drive vulnerability. By investigating the IPCC’s treatment of climate justice, this study highlights the danger of "technocratic reductionism." Understanding climate change as a social and institutional phenomenon is not merely an academic exercise; it is a prerequisite for designing effective, equitable, and sustainable policies that address the root causes of climate-driven inequality. 3. Methodology This research employs a qualitative methodology, utilizing content analysis and thematic analysis to evaluate the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The process involved a rigorous systematic examination of the report’s chapters related to vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Through thematic coding, key concepts were distilled to reveal how the IPCC operationalizes climate justice. The analytical framework focused on identifying how the report addresses distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions of justice. By cross-referencing these findings with broader sociopolitical theories, this study evaluates whether the IPCC’s approach successfully addresses the structural drivers of climate inequality or if it remains tethered to instrumentalist frameworks. 4. Key Findings The analysis demonstrates that the IPCC, in its Sixth Assessment Report, treats climate justice as a multidimensional construct that extends far beyond environmental impacts. The research identifies four core dimensions of climate justice as presented in the report: • Inequalities in Vulnerability: The IPCC acknowledges that vulnerability is not uniform; it is socially differentiated by geography, gender, income, and historical status. The report emphasizes that marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden of climate impacts. • Divergent Adaptive Capacities: The findings highlight that the ability to cope with climate change is fundamentally linked to institutional strength, economic capital, and access to resources. Justice, in this context, requires addressing the capacity gaps between developed and developing nations. • Participation and Inclusion: A major theme identified is the role of marginalized groups in decision-making processes. The IPCC advocates for inclusive policymaking, suggesting that sustainable adaptation cannot occur without the voices of those most affected by climate policy. • The Necessity of a "Just Transition": The study underscores the report’s focus on the economic shift to a low-carbon economy. The analysis shows that this transition must not be purely technological; it must be socially managed to prevent job losses, economic displacement, and the further marginalization of vulnerable populations. Despite these significant contributions, the study finds that the IPCC often focuses on the functional and operational aspects of justice. There is a perceptible gap in the report’s treatment of the deeper structural, historical, and systemic mechanisms—such as the legacy of global colonial relations and the inherent contradictions of global capital—that continuously reproduce these climate inequalities. 5. Discussion and Conclusion The findings of this study lead to the conclusion that climate change must be understood as an inherently social and institutional phenomenon. While the IPCC’s increased emphasis on justice is a progressive step, the "operationalization" of climate justice often risks ignoring the structural contexts that necessitate such justice in the first place. For policy responses to be truly effective, they must move beyond addressing symptoms and engage with the structural drivers of vulnerability. Achieving climate justice requires a three-pronged approach: the fair distribution of climate benefits and burdens, inclusive participation in governance, and formal recognition of the historical inequities that have shaped the current crisis. The study concludes that effective climate action necessitates the simultaneous pursuit of justice, sustainable development, and inclusive policymaking. Future iterations of climate assessment and policy design must adopt a more critical, integrated approach that synthesizes the IPCC’s technical expertise with a deeper commitment to rectifying historical and systemic injustices. Only by reconciling these dimensions can global climate governance provide a legitimate and durable path toward a resilient future. امروزه تغییر اقلیم نه تنها یک مسئله محیط‌زیستی، بلکه یکی از عمیق‌ترین چالش‌های جهانی تلقی می‌شود؛ که پیامدهای آن از مرزهای طبیعت فراتر رفته و با نابرابری‌های اجتماعی، اقتصادی و سیاسی گره خورده است. در آخرین گزارش‌های هیئت بین‌الدولی تغییر اقلیم، مفهوم عدالت اقلیمی به شکلی برجسته مورد تأکید قرار گرفته است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف واکاوی ابعاد گوناگون این مفهوم در گزارش‌ ششم این هیئت صورت گرفته تا از این طریق، تصویری واقعی‌تر از بحران اقلیمی ترسیم گردد. این پژوهش با رویکرد نظری مبتنی بر تحلیل مضمون و بهره‌گیری از روش تحثقیق کیفی انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که عدالت اقلیمی پدیده‌ای چندبعدی است و تنها محدود به ابعاد محیط زیستی نمی شود. تقلیل مسئله تغییر اقلیم به جنبه‌های صرفاً فنی و محیط‌زیستی، بدون در نظر گرفتن بسترهای اجتماعی و ساختاری، نه تنها تبیین کننده ابعاد واقعی این پدیده نیست، بلکه به تدوین پاسخ‌های سیاستی ناکارآمد و ناقصی منجر خواهد شد. این مفهوم ابعاد گسترده‌تری همچون نابرابری در میزان آسیب‌پذیری در برابر مخاطرات اقلیمی، تفاوت در ظرفیت سازگاری، نقش و جایگاه گروه‌های حاشیه‌نشین در فرآیندهای تصمیم‌گیری و ضرورت گذار عادلانه به سوی اقتصاد کم کربن را نیز در بر می‌گیرد. لذا می توان گفت که تغییر اقلیم پدیده‌ای ذاتاً اجتماعی و نهادی است و هرگونه مواجهه مؤثر با آن مستلزم توجه هماهنگ و همزمان به عدالت، توسعه پایدار و سیاست‌گذاری فراگیر خواهد بود.

https://clima.irimo.ir/article_248597_3f5e44a4f1335265557c68ac9623d5f9.pdf