سازمان هواشناسی کشور- پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی 2228-5040 1404 63 2026 04 21 The impact of Caspian Sea water level fluctuations on port management (case study of Amirabad port area) تاثیر نوسانات سطح آب دریای خزر بر مدیریت بنادر (مطالعه موردی پهنه بندر امیرآباد) 93 107 235608 10.22034/jcr.2025.532009.1706 FA عباس آبکار دانشجوی دوره دکترای رشته آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی علوم وتحقیقات، تهران ، ایران. آزاده اربابی سبزواری استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی. واحد اسلامشهر. تهران. ایران. فریده اسدیان استادیار گروه جغرافیای دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی علوم وتحقیقات، تهران ، ایران. Journal Article 2025 07 01 The impact of Caspian Sea water level fluctuations on port management (case study of Amirabad port area) Abstract: The Caspian Sea has experienced very severe level fluctuations in the last century, such that in 1977 it dropped to a level of -28.30 meters, and then over the course of 18 years it increased to its highest level in 1995, which was -25.5 meters compared to open waters. Since 1995, it has been on a downward trend, and this downward trend has accelerated in the last decade. It has now reached its lowest level, which is -28.30 meters, and the downward trend will continue. With this downward trend, we can predict a decrease in the level of more than half a meter per decade, and therefore, in less than 2 decades, a decrease in the level of more than one meter will occur, which requires the management of the country's ports and coasts to make the necessary arrangements in the multi-year plan. Considering the climatic patterns of precipitation and evaporation and the forecast of the decreasing trend of the level in various articles and references, it is necessary for the countries bordering the Caspian Sea to plan management and engineering measures regarding port engineering and coastal management in the Caspian Sea. In this study, Amirabad Port has been examined as one of the most important ports of Iran in the southeast of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea water level is still decreasing and technical and management solutions are necessary in the port. The process of developing and equipping ports is much slower than the decreasing process of the Caspian Sea level, and therefore short-term planning is not useful in this regard. The only possible and short-term solution in less than a decade is to change the floating fleet in the port and transfer large vessels to larger ports. Keywords: Sea level fluctuations, Caspian Sea, Amirabad, sustainable management The impact of Caspian Sea water level fluctuations on port management (case study of Amirabad port area) Abstract: The Caspian Sea has experienced very severe level fluctuations in the last century, such that in 1977 it dropped to a level of -28.30 meters, and then over the course of 18 years it increased to its highest level in 1995, which was -25.5 meters compared to open waters. Since 1995, it has been on a downward trend, and this downward trend has accelerated in the last decade. It has now reached its lowest level, which is -28.30 meters, and the downward trend will continue. With this downward trend, we can predict a decrease in the level of more than half a meter per decade, and therefore, in less than 2 decades, a decrease in the level of more than one meter will occur, which requires the management of the country's ports and coasts to make the necessary arrangements in the multi-year plan. Considering the climatic patterns of precipitation and evaporation and the forecast of the decreasing trend of the level in various articles and references, it is necessary for the countries bordering the Caspian Sea to plan management and engineering measures regarding port engineering and coastal management in the Caspian Sea. In this study, Amirabad Port has been examined as one of the most important ports of Iran in the southeast of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea water level is still decreasing and technical and management solutions are necessary in the port. The process of developing and equipping ports is much slower than the decreasing process of the Caspian Sea level, and therefore short-term planning is not useful in this regard. The only possible and short-term solution in less than a decade is to change the floating fleet in the port and transfer large vessels to larger ports. Keywords: Sea level fluctuations, Caspian Sea, Amirabad, sustainable management The impact of Caspian Sea water level fluctuations on port management (case study of Amirabad port area) Abstract: The Caspian Sea has experienced very severe level fluctuations in the last century, such that in 1977 it dropped to a level of -28.30 meters, and then over the course of 18 years it increased to its highest level in 1995, which was -25.5 meters compared to open waters. Since 1995, it has been on a downward trend, and this downward trend has accelerated in the last decade. It has now reached its lowest level, which is -28.30 meters, and the downward trend will continue. With this downward trend, we can predict a decrease in the level of more than half a meter per decade, and therefore, in less than 2 decades, a decrease in the level of more than one meter will occur, which requires the management of the country's ports and coasts to make the necessary arrangements in the multi-year plan. Considering the climatic patterns of precipitation and evaporation and the forecast of the decreasing trend of the level in various articles and references, it is necessary for the countries bordering the Caspian Sea to plan management and engineering measures regarding port engineering and coastal management in the Caspian Sea. In this study, Amirabad Port has been examined as one of the most important ports of Iran in the southeast of the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea water level is still decreasing and technical and management solutions are necessary in the port. The process of developing and equipping ports is much slower than the decreasing process of the Caspian Sea level, and therefore short-term planning is not useful in this regard. The only possible and short-term solution in less than a decade is to change the floating fleet in the port and transfer large vessels to larger ports. Keywords: Sea level fluctuations, Caspian Sea, Amirabad, sustainable management چکیده: دریای خزر در یک قرن اخیر دارای نوسانات تراز بسیار شدیدی بوده است به طوریکه در سال 1356 تا تراز 28.30- متر پایین روی داشته و سپس طی 18 سال روند افزایشی در سال 1374 به بالاترین تراز خود یعنی 25.5- متر نسبت به آبهای آزاد رسیده است. از سال 1374 تا کنون روند کاهشی داشته و این فرایند کاهشی در یک دهه اخیر نیز سرعت بیشتری یافته است. هماکنون به پایین تراز خود یعنی تراز 28.30- متر رسیده است و روند کاهشی همچنان ادامه دار خواهد بود. با این روند کاهشی می توان در هر دهه بیش از نیم متر کاهش تراز را پیش بینی کنیم و لذا در کمتر از 2 دهه بیش از یک متر کاهش تراز اتفاق می افتد که لازم است در این خصوص مدیریت بنادر و سواحل کشور تمهیدات لازم را در برنامه چندساله داشته باشد. با توجه به الگوهای اقلیمی بارش و تبحیر و پیش بینی روند کاهشی تراز در مقالات و مراجع مختلف، لازم است در خصوص مهندسی بنادر و مدیریت سواحل در دریای خزر کشورهای حاشبه دریای خزر تمهیدات مدیریتی و مهندسی طرح ریزی نمایند. در این تحقیق بندر امیرآباد بعنوان یکی از مهمترین بنادر ایران در جنوب شرقی دریای خزر مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. تراز آب دریای خزر همچنان کاهشی بوده و چاره اندیشی فنی و مدیریتی در بندر ضروری می باشد. روند توسعه و تجهیز بنادر به مراتب کندتر از روند کاهشی تراز خزر می باشد و لذا در این خصوص برنامه ریزی کوتاه مدت مفید نمی باشد. تنها چاره میسر و کوتاه مدت در کمتر از یک دهه، تغییر ناوگان شناور در بندر و انتقال شناور های بزرگ به بنادر بزرگ تر است. کلمات کلیدی: نوسانات سطح دریا، خزر، امیرآباد، مدیریت پایدار