بررسی و شبیه سازی گردوغبار تابستانی در غرب و جنوبغربی ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

هواشناسی

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های زیست محیطی سال‌های اخیر در منطقه خاورمیانه و ایران، رخداد پدیده گردوغبار می‌باشد که عمدتاً در فصل تابستان رخ می‌دهد. در این مطالعه، ابتدا با بررسی کد سینوپتیکی 06 روزهای همراه با گردوغبار در بازه 5 ساله 2002 تا 2006 در 5 شهر غربی و جنوبغربی که بیشترین خسارت ناشی ازپدیده گردوغبار را متحمل می‌شوند مورد بررسی قرار دادیم که 80 روز مشترک همراه با گردوغبار به دست آمد. سپس با روش تحلیل عاملی PCA، 2 خوشه به دست آوردیم که هر دوخوشه مبتنی بر الگوی تابستانی گردوغبار بودند. پس از آن به بررسی 4 توفان شدید و فراگیر فصل تابستان میپردازیم که در آنها بخش وسیعی از کشور تحت تأثیر این توفانها قرار گرفته است. 2 مورد در خوشه اول و 2 مورد گردوغبار در خوشه دوم قرار می‌گیرند. بررسی های همدیدی نشان می‌دهد که وجود گرادیان فشاری شدید بر روی کشور سوریه و عراق سبب وزش باد شدید در بیابانهای واقع در شرق این کشور و گسیل گردوغبار می‌شود از طرف دیگر در سطوح بالا به دلیل وجود یک ناوه عمیق در منطقه، گردوغبار تا ارتفاعات بالاتر جوی منتقل شده و توسط بادهای غرب و شمال غربی به داخل ایران وارد شده است. مقادیر مثبت تاوایی نسبی در کشور سوریه و شمال غربی عراق، نشان‌دهنده وجود حرکات صعودی در این منطقه است. تصاویر ماهواره نیز چشمه گسیل گردوغبار را در شرق کشور سوریه و بیابانهای کشور عراق نشان می‌دهند. خروجی مدل WRF-Chem برای غلظت ذرات گردوغبار نیز شروع گسیل از شرق سوریه و به تدریج انتقال آن به سمت غرب و جنوب‌غربی و نفوذ آن به مناطق مرکزی ایران را به خوبی نشان می‌دهد. می توان نتیجه گرفت که مدل WRF-Chem به خوبی چشمه گسیل، روند افزایش گردوغبار را نشان می‌دهد اما روز حداکثر گردوغبار را یک روز زودتر و یا دیرتر نشان می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Study and simulation of summer dust storm in West and Southwest of Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Nasim Hossein Hamzeh
Meteorology
چکیده [English]

Today powerful dust storm destroys people lives and causes severe damages to their life and also causes financial problems in most regions of the world especially in west and southwest of Asia. Dust storm is one of the most important natural phenomena and also a kind of severe natural disaster that influence Iran and its west and southwest part. The location of Iran on the desert belt is accompanied by frequent increasing of sand and dust storm. Integral prediction of dust storm phenomena can be useful in decreasing damages caused by these storms. So synoptic-dynamic analysis of dust storms and their simulation play an important role in achieving to this goal.
In this research, we investigate severe dust storm in August 2005 that affected a large area of our country. Select of dusty days were based on minimum visibility and maximum durability of that dust storm. At first, we use PCA method for classify dusty days in 5 years duration. We investigate code 06 in 5 western cities and 80 days were common between them. These 80 days classify in 2 clusters. Then synoptical maps were drawn for 2 clusters and both of them have summer patterns because most of dust storms happened in summer in our country. We show the minimum of daily visibility table. These data has been provided by Meteorological Organization in 5 western cities. The synoptic maps were related to these phenomena derived from NOAA website and synoptic and dynamic interpretation has been done. We have got the data with resolution of 2.5 degree from NOAA website.
Then 700 hpa relative vorticity maps were drawn. We investigate MODIS images instrument on Aqua satellite and evaluate the amount of mass concentration of dust particles. Then the Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model has been used to determine the backward trajectory of dust particles. We run HYSPLIT model by GDAS data with a resolution of 0.5 degrees. At last we investigate the output of the WRE-CHEM model. This model was run to simulate dust storms in 7-10 August and FNL data with a resolution 1 degree use for initial and boundary conditions. WRF-CHEM is used to simulate dust condition and transmission. As a part of WRF model, its main application is the study of atmosphere chemistry.
At 500 hpa a very strong ridge entered Iran from the southwest. It covered all areas of our country which prevents the transference of dust to high levels of atmosphere. In 700 hpa relative vorticity maps show one day before dust storm reach to Iran a Positive voriticity is located in Iraq and Syria. So dust comes up to higher levels of the atmosphere and in dusty days in our country. There is a negative voriticity located in our country and because of downside movement of the air, dust storm happen in Iran.
Dust loading and friction velocity of outputs of the model has been drawn in dusty days. The time series of dust concentration of output models for Tabriz are compared with the concentration data of Environmental Organization of visibility data. Result show that a low pressure system is located over the Oman sea that its blaze has been extended to the northwest of Iran. On the other hand a high pressure center is located in the Europe that extended to the east of Mediterranean. So strong pressure gradient were in Iraq and Syria and they caused the creation of strong winds in their deserts which caused dust emission.
Friction velocity related to the model outputs show that the velocity of wind is high in dusty days in Iraq and Syria. So conditions are suitable for dust raining. Satellite images showed that WRF/CHEM model is simulated very well in emission, source, diffusion and the extent of the areas covered with dust. Comparing MP10 concentration of the model output with and Environment Organization data of Tabriz city show that WRF/CHEM model forecast daily changes well. But model underestimate significantly in quantity of concentration. This error may be due to a model considering only dust quantity but other pollutants affected on visibility. In general it can be said that in this event, dust concentration has been underestimated by WRF/CHEM model especially in maximum amount of PM10 concentration.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dust Storms
  • WRF-CHEM model
  • satellite images
  • dust concentration